Prediction of Heavy Rainfall Based on Similarity between Dynamic Processes from T213 Products
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Abstract:
By virtue of the similarity between the dynamic processes from the T213 products on the MICAPS platform corresponding to the three dimensional physical element fields relative to the formation, development, and extinction of heavy rainfall, the yes/no prediction of regional heavy rainfall is made according to the comprehensive examination and analysis of the number of similar fields. Forecast factors include vorticity, divergence, vertical velocity, and moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa, 700 hPa, and 500 hPa, at the time scales of 12 , 24 and 36 hour forecast fields, respectively. The programming, automation, and objectivity are realized. The two types of models constructed by means of weather processes are based on the field mean distance. The verification indicates that the prediction results of heavy rainfall are satisfactory, with the mean TS of 2004 to 2010 (May to October) being over 33%.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.