Comparison and Evaluation of MM5 Forecasting Results between Two Different Initial Fields
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Abstract:
In order to know the forecasting performance of the localized MM5 model, the forecast capabilities of MM5 in precipitation, extreme temperature and humidity are verified and assessed in statistical methods according to the forecast results in the later half of 2007 with the NCEP and T213 initial fields in the Hebei and BeijingTianjin region. The results indicate: (1) The accuracy of fineorrainy forecasting is higher, with better value for reference, but for grade forecasting, the usability of forecasts decreases with the increasing of lead time and precipitation intensity. Generally speaking, the precipitation forecast based on the NCEP initial field is better than that based on T213. (2) For the forecasts of daily extreme temperature, the minimum temperature forecasts are better than maximum temperature forecasts; the accuracy of the maximum temperature forecasts with the T213 initial fields is better, while that of the minimum temperature forecasts with the NCEP initial fields is better. (3) The result of humidity at 08:00 shows that, there is no obvious difference in the results between two initial fields, with the absolute error being about 15%.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.