不同地貌區域閃電代理雷達回波研究及應用分析
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中國氣象局復盤總結專項(FPZJ2024-112)和創新發展專項(CXFZ2024J013)、四川省自然科學基金(2023NSFS0242)、高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災害四川省重點實驗室研究型重點專項(SCQXKJYJXZD202301)和青年專項(SCQXKJQN202227)共同資助


Research and Application Analysis of Lightning Proxy Radar Echo in Different Geomorphic Regions
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    摘要:

    利用閃電與雷達回波資料,通過箱線圖分析和對數擬合方法,為四川省不同地貌區域建立了閃電代理雷達回波的擬合方程,并進行了個例檢驗。結果表明:四川盆地、川西高原及攀西地區的閃電頻次與雷達回波強度間存在顯著關系,隨著閃電頻次的增加,雷達回波強度離散度減小,但樣本格點數也急劇減少。三個區域的代理回波強度與擬合閃電密度頻次大小呈正比關系,盆地的擬合效果是三個區域中最優的,盆地的回波中位數和均值與閃電的擬合優度均達到了0.909,其回波值與閃電頻次緊密相關,數據分布集中;川西高原次之,攀西地區因離散度大、頻次跨度廣而擬合較差。不同區域的擬合結果均整體偏弱,但是代理回波仍然能準確反映高值中心信息,而不同時刻的代理回波能夠展現出回波的動態變化趨勢,對雷暴預報預警具有重要價值。

    Abstract:

    This study delves into the relationship between lightning frequency and radar echo intensity across three distinct geomorphological regions in Sichuan Province (Sichuan Basin, Western Sichuan Plateau, and Panxi Region) based on lightning and radar echo data from 47 typical thunderstorm events occurring from June to August in 2020 and 2021. Employing boxplot analysis and logarithmic fitting methods, the study selects the maximum echo value within 0.03°×0.03° grid points from SWAN radar echo mosaics as the fitting factor for radar echoes and establishes a specific time window to accumulate lightning frequencies, thereby constructing a comprehensive sample dataset. The results reveal that the median and mean values of lightning frequency and radar echo intensity are relatively close in all three regions, with a generally symmetric data distribution. As lightning frequency increases, echo values tend to converge with reduced dispersion. Despite setting a minimum echo intensity threshold, the span of echo intensities corresponding to lightning frequencies in the Sichuan Basin remains relatively wide. A logarithmic distribution function is adopted to fit lightning frequency and radar echo, yielding satisfactory results in the Sichuan Basin and Western Sichuan Plateau, particularly in the Sichuan Basin where the goodness-of-fit for both the median and mean echo values versus lightning frequency reaches 0.909, indicating a strong correlation and high-precision fit. Conversely, the fit in the Panxi Region is less satisfactory, suggesting a weaker correlation between radar echo values and lightning frequencies in this area. The study further observes that as lightning frequency increases, the median and mean fitting curves of radar echo values in all three regions initially rise rapidly before levelling off, albeit with regional variations. These findings not only uncover the intricate relationship between lightning frequency and radar echo intensity but also provide a scientific basis for regional lightning warning and monitoring. From the perspective of individual case validation of fitted echoes, the fitting results in these three regions exhibit a tendency towards underestimation, likely due to the relatively low grid-point lightning density frequency used in calculations to reduce dispersion and ensure data stability. Nevertheless, the proxy echoes still accurately reflect high-value centre information consistent with observations, which holds significant value for thunderstorm forecasting and warning as well as the application of lightning data. In the future, further validation through more individual cases can be conducted to optimise the fitting algorithm, formula, and method, thereby enhancing the fitting results. Additionally, the fitting formula can be incorporated into model experiments to explore its application effects in different topographical and geomorphological regions.

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周威,魏慶,趙旋,王彬雁,張武龍,周長春.不同地貌區域閃電代理雷達回波研究及應用分析[J].氣象科技,2025,53(2):201~210

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-28
  • 定稿日期:2024-11-19
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-04-21
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