臺風“鮎魚”極端降水分析
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中國氣象局預報員專項項目(CMAYBY2017031)資助


Extreme Precipitation Analysis of Typhoon Megi
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    摘要:

    1617號臺風“鮎魚”的降水異常強大,溫州、麗水部分縣市的過程雨量和日雨量超過歷史極值,災害嚴重。利用NCEP 0.5°×0.5°再分析資料、FY2G 衛星資料、多普勒雷達探測資料和自動站加密觀測等資料,對其成因展開分析。結果表明:“鮎魚”東面與強大穩定的副高之間構成東南急流;北面與緩慢東移的華北高壓之間構成偏東風急流;南面是與西南季風相連接的西南急流;3支低空急流構建的切變輻合區是水汽輻合和不穩定能量的集合區,也是中尺度對流的強烈發展區,溫州、麗水部分縣市的極端降水由中尺度對流的持續發生發展引發。低空急流的長時間持續,特別充沛的水汽輸送和冷空氣的影響是“鮎魚”極端降水的主要影響機制。冷空氣影響期間,降雨回波發展旺盛,結構緊密,回波強度和降水效率等明顯強于無冷空氣影響時臺風本體環流降雨回波。云頂相當黑體亮度溫度(TBB)與臺風降水有較好的對應關系,有一定預報參考價值。

    Abstract:

    The precipitation caused by Typhoon Megi is abnormally enormous with the rainfall in part counties in Wenzhou and Lishui breaking the historical records, which caused a severe disaster. Its causes are analyzed by the use of NCEP 0.5°×0.5° reanalysis data, FY2G satellite data, Doppler radar data, the intensive observation data, and so on. The results show that there were three low jet streams: the southeast jet stream between Megi and subtropical high, the eastward jet stream between Megi and Huabei high, and the southwest jet stream connected with southwest monsoon. The shear and convergence zone consisted of three low jet streams was the area of vapor and instability energy convergence and also the trigger zone of mesoscale convection. The extreme precipitation in Wenzhou and Lishui was triggered by the strong development of continual mesoscale convection. Longtime lowlevel jet streams, particularly abundant vapor transportation and cold air are the main influencing mechanism of Megi extreme precipitation. During the cold air influencing, the precipitation echo with tight structure developed strongly. The echo intensity and precipitation efficiency were obviously stronger than those of the typhoon circulation echo with no cold air influence. The cloudtop blackbody brightness temperature (TBB) has good relationship with typhoon precipitation, which has reference value for operational forecasting.

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范愛芬,彭霞云,婁小芬,王麗潁.臺風“鮎魚”極端降水分析[J].氣象科技,2019,47(1):79~88

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2018-03-07
  • 定稿日期:2018-08-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2019-02-27
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