基于雷達回波區域跟蹤算法的臨近預報技術進展
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中央級公益性科研院所基本科研業務費專項(IUMKY201707)、公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201506004)資助


Advances in Nowcasting Techniques Based on Radar Echo Area Tracking Algorithm
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    摘要:

    目前,臨近預報技術主要包括外推技術、數值預報技術以及概念模型預報技術等。而業務上主流的臨近預報技術以外推為主,主要以雷達資料為基礎,采用雷達回波單體質心跟蹤算法或雷達回波區域跟蹤算法,得到雷達回波以及降水的臨近外推預報。本文詳細介紹了3種基于雷達回波區域跟蹤算法(交叉相關回波跟蹤算法、光流法和變分回波跟蹤算法)的臨近預報技術的國內外研究進展和基本原理。大量的研究和業務實踐結果表明,雷達回波區域跟蹤算法作為臨近預報專家系統的核心部分,在對流天氣臨近預報方面有較好的可預報性,在臨近預報業務時效內,外推預報結果和實況接近,優于數值模式預報。而通過對算法的不斷改進,可以提升各臨近預報專家系統在臨近預報方面的性能。隨著天氣雷達技術的不斷進步,天氣雷達在硬件和軟件兩方面都逐步改進,雷達資料的數據質量明顯提高,在對流天氣臨近預報上,基于雷達回波的區域跟蹤技術會凸顯其明顯優勢。

    Abstract:

    Nowadays,main nowcasting techniques comprise three aspects: extrapolation forecast, numerical model forecast,and knowledgebased forecast technique. The mainstream nowcasting technique is still extrapolation forecast,which is mainly based on radar data, and use the radar echo cell tracking algorithm or radar echo area tracking algorithm to obtain the extrapolation nowcasting of precipitation echoes and rainfall. In this paper, the advances in researches and the basic principles on the three radar echo area tracking algorithms (Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation, Optical Flow, and Variational Echo Tracker) are introduced. Based on scientific researches and operational practices,the radar echo area tracking algorithm, which is a key part of nowcasting expert system,preferably has predictability in convective weather nowcasting, and the extrapolation prediction is more closer to observation than numerical model prediction. With the continuous improvement of the algorithms, the predictability in convective weather nowcasting for all nowcasting expert systems increased. With the development of weather radar technique on both hardware and software, the quality of radar data is gradually improved. In convective weather nowcasting, the nowcasting techniques based on radar echo area tracking algorithm will highlight their obvious advantages.

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吳劍坤,陳明軒.基于雷達回波區域跟蹤算法的臨近預報技術進展[J].氣象科技,2018,46(5):899~909

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  • 收稿日期:2017-09-22
  • 定稿日期:2017-12-13
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  • 在線發布日期: 2018-10-31
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