山東省極端氣溫事件的時空變化特征
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山東省自然科學基金項目(ZR2015DL001)資助


TemporalSpatial Variation Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Events in Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    根據1971—2013年山東省14個氣象站點的逐日最高和最低氣溫資料,計算了6個極端氣溫指數,采用線性傾向率、MK突變檢驗、EEMD、反距離加權插值和相關分析等方法對山東省極端氣溫事件的時空變化特征及其與西太平洋副高環流變化的關系進行了分析。結果表明:①冷暖指數變化趨勢的方向和大小均表現出明顯的不對稱性,暖(冷)指數表現為上升(下降)趨勢顯著。冷暖指數表現出準2年和準5~7年的年際尺度波動,準10~15年和準20~28年的年代際尺度波動。②暖(冷)指數均表現為全區一致的增加(減少)趨勢;除高溫日數外,傾向率的空間分布總體上表現出東部和中部地區變化趨勢較大,西部地區變化趨勢較小。③極端氣溫事件的突變與氣溫突變具有較好的同步性,均在20世紀80年代末90年代初,表明極端氣溫指數的變化與區域性增暖有密切聯系。④極端氣溫事件(除高溫日數)的變化深受西太平洋副高變化的影響,西伸脊點、強度和面積指數變化的影響尤其顯著。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature at 14 meteorological stations in Shandong province from 1971 to 2013, six extreme temperature indexes are calculated. The methods of the linear trend rate, MK mutation, EEMD, inverse distance weight interpolation, and correlation analysis are used to study the characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of the extreme temperature events over Shandong Province and its relationship with the change of the Western Pacific Subtropical High circulation. The results show that, (1) the size and direction of the trend of cold and warm indexes show obvious asymmetry. Warm indexes show obvious increasing trend, while cold indexes show obvious decreasing trend. The cold and warm indexes show an interannual scale fluctuation of quasi20 years and 5 to 7 years, as well as the interdecadal scale fluctuation of quasi10 to 15 years and 20 to 28 years. (2) The warm (cold) indexes show a consistent increasing (decreasing) trend over the study area. The variation trend of the eastern and central region is larger and that of the western region is smaller on the whole, except in the high temperature days. (3) The abrupt changes of extreme temperature indexes and temperature have good synchronicity, both in the late 1980s and the early 1990s, which suggests that the change of extreme temperature index is closely linked to regional warming. (4) The changes of the extreme temperature events (with the exception of high temperature days) are deeply affected by the changes of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, especially the western end of the ridge, strength and area index.

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于鳳碩,廉麗姝,初翠翠.山東省極端氣溫事件的時空變化特征[J].氣象科技,2017,45(5):843~850

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  • 收稿日期:2016-09-02
  • 定稿日期:2016-12-05
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-10-31
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