杭州灣北岸一次極端高溫過程分析
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Analysis of an Extreme Heat Process along North Shore of Hangzhou Bay
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    摘要:

    利用實時探空場和歐洲中心20:00細網格、NCEP再分析資料對2013年8月6—10日杭州灣北岸極端高溫過程進行分析,結果表明:副高脊線穩定在30°N、高層有輻散氣流、低層26 ℃暖氣團處于強副高中心影響是持續40 ℃極端高溫發生的大尺度環流背景。副高與南亞高壓“相向而行”,在垂直方向上產生深厚的次級環流圈,是2013年極端高溫持續時間長、影響范圍大的一個重要因素。極端高溫的出現與空氣異常干燥有密切關系,北方高層干空氣南下疊加在中低層副高暖干氣團之上,從高層到近地層受一致下沉氣流的絕熱壓縮增溫,以及低空暖平流輸送的綜合影響,是導致7—9日杭州灣北岸多地最高氣溫屢破記錄的原因。經檢驗,極端高溫期間,業務參考使用的4個主要數值模式對最高氣溫的預報,EC模式誤差較小且穩定,絕對誤差為1 ℃,而GFS、JMA和T639誤差分別達3 ℃、4 ℃和5 ℃,應用時需訂正,以上結果可供夏季高溫預報參考。

    Abstract:

    The realtime altitude fields, ECMWF nest grid data at 12UTC and NCEP reanalysis data are used to analyze the extreme heat process from August 6 to 10 in 2013 along the north shore of the Hangzhou Bay. The results show that the largescale circulation background of the persistent extreme high temperature (40 ℃) weather include the subtropical ridge steadily at 30°N, divergence at upper levels, 26 ℃ warm air mass at lower levels under the strong subtropical high center. The subtropical high extended westwards and the South Asia high moved eastwards, which produced a profound secondary circulation loop in the vertical direction, which was an important reason for the extreme high temperature lasted longer and wider. The emergence of extreme heat was closely related with the exceptionally dry air. The reasons for more extreme temperature records have been broken along the north shore of the Hangzhou Bay are: those highlevel dry air superimposed on the southward lowerlevel subtropical dry warm mass, the adiabatic heating effect of sinking airflow from top to ground, and the warm advection at lower levels. The prediction verification of four major numerical models for high temperature service indicates: the error of EC model prediction is small and stable, about 1 ℃, and the errors of GFS, JMA, and T639 are 3, 4, and 5 ℃, respectively, which need to correct in service. These results can be used as references in the summer high temperature forecast.

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陸琛莉,潘士雄,盛文斌,何斌.杭州灣北岸一次極端高溫過程分析[J].氣象科技,2015,43(3):522~529

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  • 收稿日期:2014-03-11
  • 定稿日期:2014-12-17
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-06-30
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