熱帶氣旋災害特征及風險評估
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浙江省氣象局2008年重點科技專項“浙西南山區熱帶氣旋暴雨災害預測方法研究”(2008ZD10)資助


Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Disasters Induced by Tropical Cyclones
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    摘要:

    利用氣象災害普查資料、影響浙江麗水熱帶氣旋的有關歷史資料以及歷年麗水市的國內生產總值(GDP)統計資料,對1984~2007年影響麗水的熱帶氣旋災害特征進行統計分析,并應用改進后的氣象災害分級標準,對麗水的熱帶氣旋災害進行風險評估。結果表明:麗水的熱帶氣旋災害是各類氣象災害中最嚴重的;24年中致災熱帶氣旋年發生頻數為1.2個;5、7、8、9、10月均有致災熱帶氣旋,其中8月氣旋個數最多、影響最嚴重;熱帶氣旋災害在空間上呈明顯的自東南向西北減輕的特點,但各月之間略有差異;熱帶氣旋災害風險青田最大,松陽最小,且兩者之間差異巨大。

    Abstract:

    By using the statistical data of meteorological disasters, the historical data of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) affecting Lishui, Zhejiang Province, and GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) data of Lishui in the past years, the characteristics of tropical cyclone disasters affecting Lishui from 1984 to 2007 are statistically analyzed. The risk assessment for tropical cyclone disasters affecting Lishui is conducted by use of the improved meteorological disaster grading standards. The results show that the tropical cyclone disaster was most serious among meteorological disasters in Lishui. In the recent 24 years, the occurrence frequency of disasterscausing tropical cyclones was 1.2 per year. The disastercausing tropical cyclones happened usually in the months of May, July, August, September, and October, with the maximum number and the severest impact in August. Although there was slight difference in different months, the tropical cyclone disasters presented an obvious mitigation from southeast to northwest. The largest risk is found in Qingtian County and the minimum in Songyang County with a huge difference.

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柳岳清,周國華,陳曙.熱帶氣旋災害特征及風險評估[J].氣象科技,2010,38(4):526~531

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  • 收稿日期:2009-07-22
  • 定稿日期:2009-09-15
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