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Volume 39,Issue 1,2011 Table of Contents

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  • 1  Improvement of Fujita Formula and Its Application in Typhoon Forecasting
    Chen Chaohui Tan Yanke Li Lin Jin Jie Xu Yucheng
    2011, 39(1):1-8.
    [Abstract](2163) [HTML](0) [PDF 5.75 M](1733)
    Abstract:
    The environmental radius into the Fujita formula by consideration of environmental pressure is introduced and applied in improving typhoon 9711 forecasting. The results show that: (1) the improved Fujita formula can basically solve the problem that the computed peripheral pressure and pressure gradient are too small, and also gives a reasonable distribution of pressure and pressure gradient force within the typhoon areas; (2) the improved Fujita equation, due to the impact of the environmental radius, makes the computed wind inner deflection angle smaller and wind speed greater, and in particular, changes the internal structure of the typhoon; (3) in either the wind direction or wind speed, in the range of a certain distance from the center of the typhoon, the friction force has a very small effect, but beyond this distance, both wind inner deflection angle and wind speed have a sharp increase with the gradient of friction coefficient; and at the same distance with the same friction coefficient, the improved Fujita formula gives smaller wind inner deflection angle and greater wind speed; (4) by considering the environmental influence (i.e., the introduction of a bounded environment radius parameter), the calculated typhoon periphery pressure and pressure gradient are greater, the wind inner deflection angle smaller, and the wind speed greater. When the environment radius tends to be infinite, the improved status of Fujita formula tends to be unimproved.
    2  Predictability Study of ENSO with Mutual Information and Cao Methods
    Yu Jianglong Peng Yuehua
    2011, 39(1):9-12.
    [Abstract](1438) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.35 M](1675)
    Abstract:
    In order to study the predictability of ENSO and its spatial and temporal changes, the mutual information and Cao methods, which can ascertain the parameters in the phasespace reconstruction, are used to analyze the time series of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). The results of the mutual information method show that the calculated delay time of the longer time series is more confident with the theoretical value. The results of the Cao method reveal that the randomicity of the SSTA series is stronger than that of the sea clutters and the certainty of the SSTA series in the eastern equatorial Pacific is stronger than that in the western Pacific.
    3  Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall and Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation over Southern Fujian Province
    Li Ling Wen Mingzhang Zhang Rongyan Gao Jianyun
    2011, 39(1):13-18.
    [Abstract](1651) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.89 M](1542)
    Abstract:
    Based on the heavy rain data from 9 stations along the coastal areas of the southern Fujian from 1961 to 2007, the characteristics of heavy rainfall are analyzed, and the 24hour Probably Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is calculated for the area by using the probability method and the hydrometeorological method. Results show: (1) In the coastal area of the southern Fujian, heavy rains mostly happen in spring and summer, and there were two dominating types: frontal rainstorm and typhoon rainstorm; even though in a homogenous region, the intensity and areas of heavy rains are random. (2) The calculated PMP with PearsonⅢ distribution is not reasonable unless the extraordinary heavy rains and their frequency are considered and calculated. In addition, the randomicity of rainstorms must be taken into account in order to insure the correctness of calculated results.(3)The chosen heavy rain model belongs to highefficiency precipitation, so PMP was calculated with the vapor magnification method. The calculated results, compared with the results of the probability method, are reasonable.
    4  Characteristics of TC Abnormal Activities in SCSWNP Monsoon Trough
    Gao Jianyun Peng Yunfeng Bao Ruijuan Zhang Xiuzhi
    2011, 39(1):19-26.
    [Abstract](1723) [HTML](0) [PDF 7.14 M](1588)
    Abstract:
    Based on the typhoon data and NCEP/DOE AMIPII reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005, a study is performed of the behaviors of tropical cyclones generated in the monsoon trough (MTTC) in the South China Sea (SCS) and western North Pacific (WNP) as well as the effects of the monsoon trough intensity on MTTC. Analysis suggests: (1) The total number of tropical cyclones (TCs) is 672 over the SouthChina Sea and the western North Pacific during May to October from 1979 to 2005, of which MTTC is 491, making up 73.1% of the total and 79.2% of the onland typhoons. The grasp of the regularity of MTTCs activities means the grasp of the principal regularity of the western North Pacific TCs, which are TCs mainly affecting China. (2) During this period, the annual occurrence frequency variation of MTTCs experienced three stages: normal (1979 to 1987), more MTTCs (1988 to 1994), and fewer MTTCs (1995 to 2005); there was periodic variation in MTTC with quasifouryear and quasitwoyear periods, with 1994 being the turning point. (3) In the years of anomalous MTTCs, there was great difference in onset/ending dates and generation positions. In the years of fewer/more MTTCs, in comparison with the mean condition, MTCCs started later (earlier) and continued to be in inactive (active) phase from May to October with a smaller (larger) generation area. (4) The monsoon trough intensity and position affect greatly the generation position and annual number of MTTCs.
    5  SpatialTemporal Characteristics of Midsummer Drought Variation in Chongqing
    Li Geng Liu Xiaoran Liu De Tang Hongyu Ye Zhao
    2011, 39(1):27-32.
    [Abstract](1610) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.57 M](1754)
    Abstract:
    On the basis of the daily precipitation data of 34 stations in Chongqing from 1961 to 2008, the methods of principal component analysis and rotated principal component analysis are used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of midsummer droughts in Chongqing. The main results show that the midsummer droughts occur frequently in the central and western parts of Chongqing. The first loading vector field of midsummer droughts in Chongqing indicates that the midsummer drought variation has a good consistency. The midsummer drought abnormal region can be divided into four subregions: the western, northeastern, southeastern and middle regions. The midsummer droughts over the western region were the strongest in the 1960s and 1970s. The midsummer droughts over the northeastern region were the strongest in the 1990s. The midsummer droughts over the central region were the strongest in the 1970s. The variation tendency of midsummer droughts over the southeastern region was not obvious.
    6  Characteristics of Temperature Variation in Regions around Qinghai Lake
    Yan Dexing Zhu Baowen Xie Qiyu Deng Yonglong Tang Zhongtao Ren Deping Yan Yuxia Wang Hongli Zhou Shaolong
    2011, 39(1):33-37.
    [Abstract](2314) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.84 M](1807)
    Abstract:
    An analysis is made of the temperature trends, abrupt climate changes and abnormal cold or hot years with the temperature data of 1961 to 2008 from Gangcha, Haiyan, Gonghe, Tianjun and Chaka stations. The results show that the average temperature in regions around the Qinghai Lake had an obvious increasing trend with the rate being 0.304 to 0.551 ℃ per 10 years, and the rising amplitude is the greatest in the southern part, second in the eastern part and least in the northern part. There was also abrupt climate change in annual and seasonal average temperature. The abrupt change of annual mean temperature occurred at Gangcha and Gonghe in 1987, at Haiyan in 1990, and at Tianjun and Chaka in 1992. The abnormal cold of Gangcha and Tianjun occurred in the 1960s; abnormal hot of Gangcha, Tianjun and Chaka occurred in 2006; and abnormal hot of Gonghe at the end of the 20th century. The years of seasonal mean temperature abnormality were different in different regions.
    7  Characteristics of Climate Change in Zhalong Wetland in Context of Global Warming
    Wo Xiaotang Sun Yankun Xuan Mingjun Wang Dingzhen Liu Yanru
    2011, 39(1):38-43.
    [Abstract](1847) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.48 M](1544)
    Abstract:
    By means of the methods of moving average, trend analysis, wavelet transform, MannKendall and Yamamoto tests, the climate change characteristics in the recent 50 years are analyzed based on the precipitation and temperature data of the Zhalong wetland from 1955 to 2004. The main results indicate: (1) Annual mean temperature and seasonal mean temperature appear to be ascending; annual mean temperature had a sudden change in 1988, and since then a warmer period appeared; the period from the 1990s to date is the warmest in recent 50 years. (2) Annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation all show a decreasing trend except in spring, especially remarkable in fall; there was no obvious sudden change during the concerned time period. (3) After 1985, the frequency and intensity of summer and warm winter events conspicuously increased and atmospheric moisture decreased; there is a warming trend in the Zhalong wetland.
    8  Characteristics of Temperature Change for 53 Years in Chaozhou
    Ding Lijia Zheng Youfei Wang Chunlin Ling Liangxin
    2011, 39(1):44-49.
    [Abstract](2087) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.85 M](1783)
    Abstract:
    Based on the air temperature data of meteorological stations from 1956 to 2008,the characteristics of temperature change in Chaozhou for recent 53 years are studied, by using the lineartrend estimate, MannKendall catastrophe test, wavelet analysis, and accumulative anomaly methods. The results indicate that annual average temperature had an obviously increasing tendency during the 53 years,and increased by 0.17 ℃ per 10 years; the mutation point was in 1994, and the main period of temperature oscillation was 18 years; the most notable feature of seasonal temperature change was warming in winter, with mutation occurred the earliest in 1987, followed by autumn, summer, and spring, with mutation point being in 1994 and 1995. According to the main periods of seasonal temperature change, at a large time scale, the present time is mainly in the warmer period, and at smaller time scales, summer and autumn in the warmer period, while winter and spring in the cooler period. The active accumulative temperature of greater than 0 ℃ and greater than 10 ℃ had significant upward trends since 1990.
    9  Statistical Characteristics and Contrast Analysis of an Advection Fog in Capital Airport
    Huang Jixiong Dou Lijun Aliman
    2011, 39(1):50-55.
    [Abstract](1852) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.87 M](1755)
    Abstract:
    An analysis is made of an advection fog process that induced serious delay and cancellation of flights in the Capital Airport on 21 February 2007 in the aspects of synoptic situation and physical parameter fields, in compared with the typical advection fog process on 16 January 2000. The statistical analysis and comparison are performed on all the advection fog processes occurred in the Capital Airport from 2000 to 2007, to find out the characteristics of the advection fog weather. Some forecasting hints of advection fogs over the Capital Airport are summarized and presented: under the weak weather situation, if there exists a large fog area in the southeast and ground temperature increases abnormally or keeps warm for a long time resulted from warm advection before dawn in both Tongxian and Capital Airport, the wind direction at Capital Airport turning to east or southeast as well, the advection fog can be forecasted.
    10  Causes of Precipitation Difference over Inner Mongolia in Early 2009
    Jiang Xuegong Li Zhangjun Wang Chunyan Hu Yinghua Wu Xiangdong
    2011, 39(1):56-60.
    [Abstract](2292) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.39 M](1549)
    Abstract:
    A preliminary study is conducted on the causes of the precipitation anomaly event occurred between January and February of 2009 by using the observational and NCEP reanalysis data.The results show that during this period the height anomalies of 500 hPa at south of 45°N were positive while negative at north of 45°N, which induced more precipitation in the northeast part of Inner Mongolia and less precipitation on other parts; in the central part of Inner Mongolia, both humidity and ascending motion were not favorable for precipitation, and therefore there occurred a severe drought; in the south to east part, ascending motion was favorable for precipitation, but the humidity was not, resulting in drought owing to the dominant humidity; for the north to east part, humidity anomaly was not significant, but ascending motion was favorable for precipitation, resulting in more precipitation.
    11  Radar Rainfall Estimates in Guilin
    Bai Xianda Wang Yanlan Sun Ying
    2011, 39(1):61-65.
    [Abstract](1919) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.98 M](1730)
    Abstract:
    The XINRAD S/B radar was put to use after 2004 in Guilin, and some experiments on radar rainfall estimates were carried out. A mixing scanned plane was defined according to the actual situation of Guilin, by means of the graded radar echo intensity and the optimization method, the coefficients of 〖WTBX〗A〖WTBZ〗 and 〖WTBX〗b〖WTBZ〗 in〖WTBX〗 Z〖CD*2〗I〖WTBZ〗 relation are obtained. The capability of measuring rainfall quantitatively is improved obviously. The accuracy increased by 20% in use of our〖WTBX〗 Z〖CD*2〗I〖WTBZ〗 relation, compared with the method of weather system classification; increased by 40% compared with that by the generally used one developed by US. Using the graded radar echo intensity to set up the 〖WTBX〗Z〖CD*2〗I〖WTBZ〗 relation for radar rainfall estimates is easy to operate, to change the 〖WTBX〗Z〖CD*2〗I〖WTBZ〗 relation automatically, and to achieve the automation of rainfall estimates.
    12  Analysis and Processing of DrivingPower Failure in Bearing Servo System of CINRAD/CD Radar
    Li Mingyuan Zhao Daqing Zhang Husheng Cheng Minglin Zuo Jingchun
    2011, 39(1):66-69.
    [Abstract](1755) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.25 M](1622)
    Abstract:
    A summary is made of eight drivingpower failure events in the bearing servo system of the new generation Doppler weather radar CINRAD/CD over the past 6 years in Zunyi. According to the fine differences of the fault phenomena, the faults can be classified into three categories, and the corresponding reasons and specific maintenance measures are discussed, which can contribute to the accumulation of experiences for radar maintenance technicians.
    13  Analysis of Unstable Noise Temperature in CINRAD Receiver System
    Cai Hong Gao Yuchun Qin Jianfeng Xiang Lili
    2011, 39(1):70-72.
    [Abstract](1899) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.46 M](1621)
    Abstract:
    The unstable noise temperature, a typical fault, has been detected existing in the Wuhan CINRAD since it was put into operation. The statistical analysis of symptoms, monitoring data and fault causes and the graded detection of the receiving channel module were performed, based on which the corresponding methods to solve the problems also devised. The detecting methods and techniques that should be mastered in CINRAD daily operating and technology supporting service are introduced to improve technicians’ capabilities of analyzing and solving problems.
    14  Application and Failure Analysis of GPS Direction Finder in Mobile Radar
    Guo Haitao Ma Chuancheng Yang Chongjing Tu Aiqin Liu Bin
    2011, 39(1):73-75.
    [Abstract](1796) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.36 M](1540)
    Abstract:
    The components, functions and application of the GPS direction finder in mobile radar are introduced. The faults in which the azimuth does not display or display incorrectly while the GPS direction finder being in use are described, and the causes is analyzed, through extracting and analyzing the data of the GPS direction finder and studying a variety of factors affecting the GPS satellite signal receiving. Some suggestions about the use of the GPS direction finder are presented.
    15  Factors Affecting Radar Data Transmission and Corresponding Countermeasures
    Zhao Ruijin Yang Hailong
    2011, 39(1):76-82.
    [Abstract](1689) [HTML](0) [PDF 5.86 M](1739)
    Abstract:
    With the development of CINRAD and the sharing of radar data, the amount and types of transmitted radar data increase greatly. In order to improve the transmission quality, the types and the sharing way of the CINRAD data in Hebei Province are introduced. In combination with the practical transmission status of radar data in Hebei, the factors affecting radar transmission are analyzed. The results show that the influencing factors come from the network, communication circuitry, transmission software, radar device, and manmade mistake. The corresponding countermeasures are given also. These provided useful references for the monitoring and sharing of radar data, and improved the transmission quality of radar data.
    16  Test on WebGIS Products for Meteorological Applications
    Pei Chong Li Wei Shao Nan Hu Xueying
    2011, 39(1):83-86.
    [Abstract](1923) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.48 M](1890)
    Abstract:
    The Meteorological Observation Center of CMA is developing ASOM (Atmopsheric Observing System Operations Monitoring), in which WebGIS technology is used. In order to select the best WebGIS operation platform, three popular WebGIS products are tested. Starting with the analysis of the functional requirements of meteorological applications, the test environment, test content and test results are given along with conclusions and some recommendations.
    17  Zhejiang Electronic Sand Table System for Meteorological Applications
    Shen Pingyue Mao Yingda
    2011, 39(1):87-90.
    [Abstract](1891) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.26 M](1734)
    Abstract:
    The electronic sand table model is established by means of elevation data, and elevation data, vector data, and image data are visualized in three dimensions. A rendered electronic sand table model for Zhejiang Province is established in the threedimensional scene. The Zhejiang electronic sand table display platform is constructed based on Microsoft.NET and ArcGIS Engine. It completed several functions such as the integrated display of electronic sand table, the basic operation of maps, attribute information query, automatic overlay display, and the analysis of MICAPS grid data (the fourth category). It provides a manifest threedimensional environment for users to analyze conveniently a variety of meteorological elements in combination with terrain.
    18  Development and Application of Surface MeteorologicalData ReportMaking System with Mobile Phone
    Zhai Xiangdong Yu Dongzhi
    2011, 39(1):91-94.
    [Abstract](1510) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.10 M](1611)
    Abstract:
    In order to improve the operational capability of meteorological emergency support, the surface meteorologicaldata reportmaking system with mobile phone was developed. The systm has the features of low requirement for support environment, high compatibility, objectoriented programming, and modularized structure. The functions and the operating sheme of the system in emergency are described in detail, and the problems encountered during the developing process of the system with J2ME and the corresponding countermeasures are discussed, including floatingpoint operations, special phenomenon processing, packet transmission, program compatibility, memory processing, as well as the practical application of the system and development proposals.
    19  Research on Urban Surface Heat Environment Monitoring Indexes and Its Application
    Ye Caihua Liu Yonghong Liu Weidong Liu Cheng Quan Weijun
    2011, 39(1):95-101.
    [Abstract](2162) [HTML](0) [PDF 6.04 M](1697)
    Abstract:
    Remote sensing has become an important means for monitoring urban heat environment. It is still difficult to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal change of the urban heat environment only by ground surface temperature or brightness temperature presently. Based on the examination of remote sensing images, three heat environment monitoring indexes are put forward: urban heat island intensity, heat field intensity index, and urban heat proportion index. The MODIS surface temperature products and FY3A/MERSI of two years are used for monitoring and analyzing the Beijing area heat environment. The results show that the three indexes can monitor the intensity and variation of the Beijing heat island effect, and have significance in urban heat island monitoring.
    20  Method for Estimating Impact of Spring LowTemperature and ContinuousRain Disasters on Crop Yields
    Zhao Hui Wang Yuan Li Gang Ma Zhengsheng Liu Jia
    2011, 39(1):102-105.
    [Abstract](2084) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.17 M](1612)
    Abstract:
    A quantitative assessment is made of the economic loss of main crops, including rice, wheat, rape and tea, resulted from the spring lowtemperature and continuousrain disasters in Xinyang, Henan Province, according to the standard definition of the spring lowtemperature and continuousrain disaster, by means of the related meteorological data from 1971 to 2007. The spring lowtemperature and continuousrain disasters are divided into three levels, based on the durations and harmfulness of disaster inducing factors, such as low temperature in March, “low temperature+continuous rain+low temperaturecontinuousrain” in April, and continuousrain in May. The expected crop yields and the disaster loss rates are calculated with the separation method based on Lagrange interpolation theory. The results show that the spring lowtemperature and continuousrain disasters have different impacts during the different periods in spring on rice, wheat, rape, and tea, most harmful in April and May. It is of great significance to carry out the damage assessment of spring lowtemperature and continuousrain disasters for the disaster prevention/mitigation and decisionmaking of governments at all levels.
    21  Impacts of Meteorological Conditions on Ginger Production and HighYield Measures in Dabie Mountain Area
    Jiang Shengguo Xu Dongshu Wu Yunxia Liu Mengqi
    2011, 39(1):106-109.
    [Abstract](1678) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.21 M](1595)
    Abstract:
    According to the environmental requirements of ginger production for meteorological conditions, the favorable meteorological conditions for ginger production in Yuexi County of the Dabie Mountains are analyzed, which provide adequate heat and water resources and the longer growth period. The main agrometeorological disasters in Yuexi County include lowtemperature and continuous rain in the sowing period, high temperature and strong sunshine in the seedling period, summer/autumn drought in the exuberant growing period, and early frost in the late growing period. Several countermeasures for highyield cultivating are present to provide the theoretical basis for improving ginger yields.
    22  Correlation Analysis of Sugarcane Stem Elongation and Meteorological Moisture Parameters
    Wu Xuanke Duan Yiqiang Chen Lidong
    2011, 39(1):110-113.
    [Abstract](1564) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.08 M](1536)
    Abstract:
    To study the impact of meteorological moisture parameters on sugarcane stem elongation, the sugarcane data and the corresponding meteorological moisture parameter data from the agrometeorological experiment station of Liuzhou from 2003 to 2007 are used to conduct statistical regression analyses by SPSS. The results show that the 10day sugarcane elongation has significant positive correlation with 10day water income amount, as well as 10day precipitation, water surplus and deficit, and evapotranspiration from 2003 to 2007; the results of the 5year data analysis show the same relation. The water income amount in the current 10day period has closer relation with the sugarcane elongation than that in the previous 10day period, and i. e., that in the first previous 10day period has closer relation with the sugarcane elongation than that in the second previous 10day period, and so on. It is concluded that water income amount is the key climatic factor for sugarcane elongation, and water income amount has an lagging and accumulative impact on sugarcane elongation.
    23  Responses of Phonological Phase of Indian Cuckoo to Climate Changes
    Zhang Cuiying Li Ruiying Zhao Chendao
    2011, 39(1):114-117.
    [Abstract](1523) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.85 M](1388)
    Abstract:
    Based on the phonological phase data of Indian cuckoo and meteorological data from 1983 to 2008 in Heze, the responses of the phonological phases of Indian cuckoos to climate changes are analyzed. The results show that the relationship between first warble dates and mean temperature from January to May was negative, and that of last warble dates with mean temperature from June to July was positive; the number of days from first to last warble and mean temperature were positively and significantly correlated. With increasing temperature, the first warble dates advanced by 3 days per 10 years, and the last warble dates delayed by 6 days per 10 years. The more sunshine days in early spring were beneficial to the advancement of the first warble dates, and the more sunshine days in autumn were beneficial to the delay of the last warble dates. The larger precipitation in spring and winter corresponded to the less number of days between first and last warbles.
    24  Application of Nansihu Lake Surface Strong Wind Early Warning System
    Ma Jinshan Song Dong Qiu Jiling
    2011, 39(1):118-122.
    [Abstract](1648) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.10 M](1524)
    Abstract:
    In order to compensate for the missing report shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods for strong winds generated by mesoscale and microscale weather systems on the Nansihu Lake and minimize the loss of people and property, the Nansihu Lake Surface Strong Wind Early Warning System was designed. The intensive observing data every ten minutes from intensive automatic weather stations and conventional groundbased meteorological stations, the methods for extracting and analyzing realtime data, and drawing and releasing color contour maps, the sound alarming, etc., are fully used in the system to achieve the realtime observation of strong wind distribution and further improve forecast accuracy. The trial application shows that the system is interface friendly, easy to transplant, has high operating stability and low false forecast rate, which can play an important role in the shortrange early warning and forecasting of strong winds.
    25  Air Quality Forecast & Warning and Pollutant Diffusion Emergency Response System for Changzhou
    Huo Yan Dong Qin Lei Zhengcui Jiao Zhenfeng Shen Yan
    2011, 39(1):123-128.
    [Abstract](2039) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.71 M](1716)
    Abstract:
    The air quality forecast & warning and pollutant diffusion emergency response system is developed by the Changzhou Meteorological Bureau and the Changzhou Environmental Monitoring Station jointly. It is a synthesized application system of environmental and weather analysis and research, which combines air quality forecast and pollutant diffusion emergency response together by setting up the website and using internet technology. The accuracy of the air quality forecast has been greatly improved since it was put to use in June 2008. The system is suitable for meteorological and environmental services for its property stability, convenience and transplantability.

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