Volume 34,Issue 1,2006 Table of Contents
2006, 34(1):1-6.
Abstract:
概述了全球尺度、我國大范圍區域及長江中下游梅雨的年代際氣候變化的一些研究進展,重點介紹了近期我國氣象工作者有關這方面研究的一些成果.指出：①全球尺度的大氣、海洋及氣溫變化不僅存在明顯的年際變化,而且年代際變化也十分顯著;②受全球氣候年代際變化的影響,中國氣候也存在多時間尺度的變化特征,但氣候的年代際變化特征與全球氣候年代際變化有不同之處;③長江中下游梅雨氣候變異不僅與海-氣相互作用密切相關,而且海洋的年代際變化也是梅雨異常變化的重要氣候背景;④年代際尺度變化在全球變暖改變區域氣候特征的過程中的貢獻、年代際氣候變化的形成及作用機制,特別是長江中下游梅雨的年代際變化的成因和機制都是仍需繼續加強研究的問題.
概述了全球尺度、我國大范圍區域及長江中下游梅雨的年代際氣候變化的一些研究進展,重點介紹了近期我國氣象工作者有關這方面研究的一些成果.指出：①全球尺度的大氣、海洋及氣溫變化不僅存在明顯的年際變化,而且年代際變化也十分顯著;②受全球氣候年代際變化的影響,中國氣候也存在多時間尺度的變化特征,但氣候的年代際變化特征與全球氣候年代際變化有不同之處;③長江中下游梅雨氣候變異不僅與海-氣相互作用密切相關,而且海洋的年代際變化也是梅雨異常變化的重要氣候背景;④年代際尺度變化在全球變暖改變區域氣候特征的過程中的貢獻、年代際氣候變化的形成及作用機制,特別是長江中下游梅雨的年代際變化的成因和機制都是仍需繼續加強研究的問題.
2 Preliminary Study of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Method for Landfalling Typhoon
2006, 34(1):7-11.
Abstract:
By using GMS-5 IR1 TBB of landfalling typhoon(LT) and hourly rainfall from ground automatic weather stations,a preliminary method of quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE) suitable for LT was found.Based on the results from the QPE method,the short-term quantitative precipitation forecast of 0 h to 3 h(QPF) for LT can be realized with the extrapolation method preliminarily.The applications of the QPF method to 0104 LT Utor and 0414 LT Rananim show that as far as single station hourly rainfall quantitative forecast is concerned,if 50% relative error can be accepted,the accuracies of QPF for 0 h,1 h,2 h and 3 h can reach 20% to 70%,30% to 80%,30% to 70%,and 20% to 60%,respectively;as far as single station process rainfall quantitative forecast is concerned,if 50% relative error can be accepted,the accuracies of QPF for 0h,1 h,2 h and 3 h can all almost reach 60% to 80%;quantitative forecast for 0 h to 3 h area rainfall can also be provided,to a certain extent.The QPF results of 0 to 3 hours can serve as a reference for the operational short-term operational precipitation forecast for LT,to some degree.
By using GMS-5 IR1 TBB of landfalling typhoon(LT) and hourly rainfall from ground automatic weather stations,a preliminary method of quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE) suitable for LT was found.Based on the results from the QPE method,the short-term quantitative precipitation forecast of 0 h to 3 h(QPF) for LT can be realized with the extrapolation method preliminarily.The applications of the QPF method to 0104 LT Utor and 0414 LT Rananim show that as far as single station hourly rainfall quantitative forecast is concerned,if 50% relative error can be accepted,the accuracies of QPF for 0 h,1 h,2 h and 3 h can reach 20% to 70%,30% to 80%,30% to 70%,and 20% to 60%,respectively;as far as single station process rainfall quantitative forecast is concerned,if 50% relative error can be accepted,the accuracies of QPF for 0h,1 h,2 h and 3 h can all almost reach 60% to 80%;quantitative forecast for 0 h to 3 h area rainfall can also be provided,to a certain extent.The QPF results of 0 to 3 hours can serve as a reference for the operational short-term operational precipitation forecast for LT,to some degree.
2006, 34(1):12-17.
Abstract:
利用T213、日本細網格降水預報等數值預報產品,采用人工神經網絡方法進行預報釋用.通過聚類分析方法對廣西自治區測站進行分類,簡化預報對象,對數量眾多的T213數值預報產品采用自然正交分解（EOF）方法,濃縮大量因子的有效信息,并結合日本降水預報因子建立廣西5～6月區域降水量級的逐日人工神經網絡預報模型.運用與實際業務預報相同的方法進行逐日預報試驗.結果表明,用這種數值預報產品釋用方法建立廣西3個預報區域的B-P人工神經網絡預報模型對中雨以上降水量級預報的TS評分分別為0.55、0.5和0.26,比目前業務預報中參考使用的T213和日本數值預報產品降水預報具有更好的預報效果.
利用T213、日本細網格降水預報等數值預報產品,采用人工神經網絡方法進行預報釋用.通過聚類分析方法對廣西自治區測站進行分類,簡化預報對象,對數量眾多的T213數值預報產品采用自然正交分解（EOF）方法,濃縮大量因子的有效信息,并結合日本降水預報因子建立廣西5～6月區域降水量級的逐日人工神經網絡預報模型.運用與實際業務預報相同的方法進行逐日預報試驗.結果表明,用這種數值預報產品釋用方法建立廣西3個預報區域的B-P人工神經網絡預報模型對中雨以上降水量級預報的TS評分分別為0.55、0.5和0.26,比目前業務預報中參考使用的T213和日本數值預報產品降水預報具有更好的預報效果.
2006, 34(1):18-21.
Abstract:
The forcasting of Meiyu rainfall is very important to industry and agriculture in Taizhou.According to the distributing features of Meiyu in the area,a convenient and practical method is put forward.A Meiyu predication experiment using the threshold auto-regressive model,advanced genetic algorithm,and related techniques was carried out in Taizhou.The graded forecasting method was adopted in predicting Meiyu rainfall and the statistical results are provided.The result shows that the fitting-rate and the accuracy are 78% and 80%,respectively.
The forcasting of Meiyu rainfall is very important to industry and agriculture in Taizhou.According to the distributing features of Meiyu in the area,a convenient and practical method is put forward.A Meiyu predication experiment using the threshold auto-regressive model,advanced genetic algorithm,and related techniques was carried out in Taizhou.The graded forecasting method was adopted in predicting Meiyu rainfall and the statistical results are provided.The result shows that the fitting-rate and the accuracy are 78% and 80%,respectively.
2006, 34(1):22-28.
Abstract:
The MM5 model is used to simulate the heavy rain process occurred in August 2000 in Hebei Province.The results show that the process was caused by a cold vortex over the eastern Mongolia and the subtropical high,and the direct trigger for the local severe heavy rainfall was a mesoscale convective cloud cluster.There was rapid accumulation of energy before the mesoscale system took shape.Sensitive experiments on terrain effect and southeast winds at low levels for the heavy rainfall process are conducted.It is concluded that although the heavy rain occurred in the eastern Hebei Province,this process was greatly affected by the mountains over the west and north parts of North China.When the terrain is removed,the location and intensity of the heavy rainfall change obviously;and when the low-level southeast wind is weakened,the movement speed and intensity of the cold vortex over the eastern Mongolia change in different degrees;and the lower the level is,the more obvious the effect.
The MM5 model is used to simulate the heavy rain process occurred in August 2000 in Hebei Province.The results show that the process was caused by a cold vortex over the eastern Mongolia and the subtropical high,and the direct trigger for the local severe heavy rainfall was a mesoscale convective cloud cluster.There was rapid accumulation of energy before the mesoscale system took shape.Sensitive experiments on terrain effect and southeast winds at low levels for the heavy rainfall process are conducted.It is concluded that although the heavy rain occurred in the eastern Hebei Province,this process was greatly affected by the mountains over the west and north parts of North China.When the terrain is removed,the location and intensity of the heavy rainfall change obviously;and when the low-level southeast wind is weakened,the movement speed and intensity of the cold vortex over the eastern Mongolia change in different degrees;and the lower the level is,the more obvious the effect.
2006, 34(1):29-34.
Abstract:
Based on the synoptic analysis for a rainstorm event occurred in Chongqing on 29,30 May 2004,the nonhydrostatic version of mesoscale numerical model MM5 was used to simulate this case with two nested domains.The diagnostic analysis results show that the moving cold-front cloud system produced by a high-level trough is the main synoptic system of this rainstorm,and a meso-vortex produced by the trough is the main mesoscale system.The comparison between simulated and observed data shows that MM5 can successfully simulate the rainstorm event in the east of the Sichuan plain.It is pointed out that the meso-vortex convergence and the intense ascending movement produced by the east-moving trough in the Chongqing area engendered the rainstorm.
Based on the synoptic analysis for a rainstorm event occurred in Chongqing on 29,30 May 2004,the nonhydrostatic version of mesoscale numerical model MM5 was used to simulate this case with two nested domains.The diagnostic analysis results show that the moving cold-front cloud system produced by a high-level trough is the main synoptic system of this rainstorm,and a meso-vortex produced by the trough is the main mesoscale system.The comparison between simulated and observed data shows that MM5 can successfully simulate the rainstorm event in the east of the Sichuan plain.It is pointed out that the meso-vortex convergence and the intense ascending movement produced by the east-moving trough in the Chongqing area engendered the rainstorm.
2006, 34(1):35-40.
Abstract:
The precipitation on 4,5 April 2002 in Henan Province was simulated by the one-dimension stratiform cloud numerical model.The results indicate that the precipitation belongs to cold-cloud precipitation;ice-phase particles were the main components in the cold clouds both before and after the front;and the distribution of water particles from top to bottom was ice crystals,snow,cloud water,graupel and rainwater.The content and the number density of these particles in the front of the cold front were different from those behind the front,but the main microphysical mechanisms of particle formation were the same.The increasing of the numerical density of ice crystals depended mainly on nucleation and multiplication;that of snow mostly on the sublimation and accretion of ice crystals and cold cloud water;and the mass increasing of graupel on the accretion of snow and supercooled cloud water and the auto-conversion of snow.Almost all of rainwater came from graupel melting.Therefore,the mechanism of cold-front precipitation was mainly described as "vapor-snow-graupel-rain water."
The precipitation on 4,5 April 2002 in Henan Province was simulated by the one-dimension stratiform cloud numerical model.The results indicate that the precipitation belongs to cold-cloud precipitation;ice-phase particles were the main components in the cold clouds both before and after the front;and the distribution of water particles from top to bottom was ice crystals,snow,cloud water,graupel and rainwater.The content and the number density of these particles in the front of the cold front were different from those behind the front,but the main microphysical mechanisms of particle formation were the same.The increasing of the numerical density of ice crystals depended mainly on nucleation and multiplication;that of snow mostly on the sublimation and accretion of ice crystals and cold cloud water;and the mass increasing of graupel on the accretion of snow and supercooled cloud water and the auto-conversion of snow.Almost all of rainwater came from graupel melting.Therefore,the mechanism of cold-front precipitation was mainly described as "vapor-snow-graupel-rain water."
2006, 34(1):41-46.
Abstract:
運用天氣學、衛星云圖和物理診斷方法,分析20°N以北、130°E以西有臺風活動,陜西有地面冷鋒東移過境并出現大暴雨的3次典型天氣過程,以揭示近海臺風活動對青藏高原東北側冷鋒暴雨增幅的特征和規律。結果顯示此類暴雨的中尺度對流云團位于冷鋒云系的前部,其水平尺度在幾十公里到300 km左右,生命史約6~8 h,中尺度系統常具有夜間發展、增強的特征。冷鋒暴雨的水汽輸送主要依靠臺風低壓外圍的偏東急流來傳遞,水汽輸送以850 hPa層附近最為顯著。當臺風西行移至臺灣島附近活動,而青藏高原東北側的陜西有冷鋒過境東移時,此時出現冷鋒暴雨的降水增幅明顯。
運用天氣學、衛星云圖和物理診斷方法,分析20°N以北、130°E以西有臺風活動,陜西有地面冷鋒東移過境并出現大暴雨的3次典型天氣過程,以揭示近海臺風活動對青藏高原東北側冷鋒暴雨增幅的特征和規律。結果顯示此類暴雨的中尺度對流云團位于冷鋒云系的前部,其水平尺度在幾十公里到300 km左右,生命史約6~8 h,中尺度系統常具有夜間發展、增強的特征。冷鋒暴雨的水汽輸送主要依靠臺風低壓外圍的偏東急流來傳遞,水汽輸送以850 hPa層附近最為顯著。當臺風西行移至臺灣島附近活動,而青藏高原東北側的陜西有冷鋒過境東移時,此時出現冷鋒暴雨的降水增幅明顯。
2006, 34(1):47-51.
Abstract:
Using the data of the number of autumn precipitation days from 104 stations in the eastern Northwest China from 1960 to 2000,by means of principal component and rotated principal component analysis methods,the abnormal temporal-spatial characteristics of autumn precipitation days are analyzed.The results show that the number of autumn precipitation days(above 0.1 mm) decreases from south to north,and there are two more-than-normal precipitation centers: one in the Qilian Mountain region and the other over the southern Qinghai Province and the northern Sichuan Province.Its abnormal distribution has two patterns: consistent(abnor-)(mity) and northwest-southeast reverse abnormity.The climate region can be divided into several sections: the east sub-tropic monsoon zone,northeast Qinghai and central Gansu,Hexi and Hetao of Gansu,southern Qinghai Plateau and western Sichuan Plateau.The inter-annual changes of the number of precipitation days at representative stations show a decreasing trend,and the year of 1978 is the turning point.
Using the data of the number of autumn precipitation days from 104 stations in the eastern Northwest China from 1960 to 2000,by means of principal component and rotated principal component analysis methods,the abnormal temporal-spatial characteristics of autumn precipitation days are analyzed.The results show that the number of autumn precipitation days(above 0.1 mm) decreases from south to north,and there are two more-than-normal precipitation centers: one in the Qilian Mountain region and the other over the southern Qinghai Province and the northern Sichuan Province.Its abnormal distribution has two patterns: consistent(abnor-)(mity) and northwest-southeast reverse abnormity.The climate region can be divided into several sections: the east sub-tropic monsoon zone,northeast Qinghai and central Gansu,Hexi and Hetao of Gansu,southern Qinghai Plateau and western Sichuan Plateau.The inter-annual changes of the number of precipitation days at representative stations show a decreasing trend,and the year of 1978 is the turning point.
2006, 34(1):52-56.
Abstract:
應用主分量方法分析了云南省84站1991～2000年雨季（5～10月）逐候降水量的主要時空特征,并用非整波技術分析了所提取的第1、第2主分量頻譜分布的低頻振蕩特點,同時分析了低頻振蕩現象與El Nino（La Nina）事件及云南雨季降水多、少之間的關系.結果表明：①云南地區雨季降水主要低頻振蕩周期為6候（30天）、10候（50天）的月際振蕩和15～17候（75～85天）的季節內振蕩;②云南雨季的候降水每年都存在30天振蕩周期,30天振蕩是云南雨季固有的振蕩;③當發生El Nino或La Nina異常氣候事件時,云南雨季的候降水存在50天振蕩周期;④當云南雨季存在75～85天振蕩時,云南主汛期（6～8月）降水距平百分率為正（除2000年為零距平）;當云南雨季不存在75～85天振蕩時,云南主汛期降水距平百分率為負.
應用主分量方法分析了云南省84站1991～2000年雨季（5～10月）逐候降水量的主要時空特征,并用非整波技術分析了所提取的第1、第2主分量頻譜分布的低頻振蕩特點,同時分析了低頻振蕩現象與El Nino（La Nina）事件及云南雨季降水多、少之間的關系.結果表明：①云南地區雨季降水主要低頻振蕩周期為6候（30天）、10候（50天）的月際振蕩和15～17候（75～85天）的季節內振蕩;②云南雨季的候降水每年都存在30天振蕩周期,30天振蕩是云南雨季固有的振蕩;③當發生El Nino或La Nina異常氣候事件時,云南雨季的候降水存在50天振蕩周期;④當云南雨季存在75～85天振蕩時,云南主汛期（6～8月）降水距平百分率為正（除2000年為零距平）;當云南雨季不存在75～85天振蕩時,云南主汛期降水距平百分率為負.
2006, 34(1):57-61.
Abstract:
根據山東省60個氣象站1961～2001年的氣溫與降水資料,利用回歸分析、功率譜分析等方法,研究了山東省近41年氣溫與降水的年、季變化傾向、階段性和周期性等變化特征.結果表明：①近41年山東省年平均氣溫有顯著的上升趨勢,各季平均氣溫雖也均呈上升趨勢,但增溫趨勢表現出明顯的季節非對稱性,其中以冬季氣溫增幅最大.②年降水量呈下降趨勢,年降水量減幅為每10年 31.7 mm;不同季節降水的變化趨勢有所不同,其中夏季降水減幅最大,而冬季降水略有增加.③山東省年平均氣溫的演變表現出明顯的階段性和周期性的基本特點,而降水的階段性和周期性特征則不如氣溫顯著.
根據山東省60個氣象站1961～2001年的氣溫與降水資料,利用回歸分析、功率譜分析等方法,研究了山東省近41年氣溫與降水的年、季變化傾向、階段性和周期性等變化特征.結果表明：①近41年山東省年平均氣溫有顯著的上升趨勢,各季平均氣溫雖也均呈上升趨勢,但增溫趨勢表現出明顯的季節非對稱性,其中以冬季氣溫增幅最大.②年降水量呈下降趨勢,年降水量減幅為每10年 31.7 mm;不同季節降水的變化趨勢有所不同,其中夏季降水減幅最大,而冬季降水略有增加.③山東省年平均氣溫的演變表現出明顯的階段性和周期性的基本特點,而降水的階段性和周期性特征則不如氣溫顯著.
2006, 34(1):62-67.
Abstract:
Some special years were identified by using the singular value decomposition(SVD) analysis between 500 hPa height fields and Shandong precipitation in the same periods: July,August and summer,respectively.The 500 hPa height fields in special years were synthesized,and the results indicate: The unconventionality of the position and strength of the western subtropical high has an important influence on Shandong precipitation.While the western subtropical high is weaker and its position is farther northern,there is more rainfall in Shandong;and while the western subtropical high is stronger and its position is farther southern and western,there is less rainfall in Shandong.In addition,the unconventionality of the 500 hPa height field over the South China Sea and Philippines has close relation with the western subtropical high.
Some special years were identified by using the singular value decomposition(SVD) analysis between 500 hPa height fields and Shandong precipitation in the same periods: July,August and summer,respectively.The 500 hPa height fields in special years were synthesized,and the results indicate: The unconventionality of the position and strength of the western subtropical high has an important influence on Shandong precipitation.While the western subtropical high is weaker and its position is farther northern,there is more rainfall in Shandong;and while the western subtropical high is stronger and its position is farther southern and western,there is less rainfall in Shandong.In addition,the unconventionality of the 500 hPa height field over the South China Sea and Philippines has close relation with the western subtropical high.
2006, 34(1):68-72.
Abstract:
Based on the observational data of Shaanxi Province from 1961 to 2002, after minimizing the possible biases caused by urban heat,the first eigenvector values of maximum and minimum temperature were obtained by the empirical orthogonal function method,which are positive in four seasons and whose variance contributions are over 60 percent.The temporal coefficients of the first eigenvectors can reflect the variation of maximum and minimum temperature.According to these coefficients,the spatial and temporal distributions of trends for maximum and minimum temperature were studied.The results show both maximum and minimum temperature show an increasing trend after 1984 in all seasons.These trends were centered around the central and western parts of Guanzhong and Weibei.Except in autumn,an increasing trend for temperature daily range is found in other seasons over the recent ten years,which was possibly caused by the decreasing of cloudy quantity.
Based on the observational data of Shaanxi Province from 1961 to 2002, after minimizing the possible biases caused by urban heat,the first eigenvector values of maximum and minimum temperature were obtained by the empirical orthogonal function method,which are positive in four seasons and whose variance contributions are over 60 percent.The temporal coefficients of the first eigenvectors can reflect the variation of maximum and minimum temperature.According to these coefficients,the spatial and temporal distributions of trends for maximum and minimum temperature were studied.The results show both maximum and minimum temperature show an increasing trend after 1984 in all seasons.These trends were centered around the central and western parts of Guanzhong and Weibei.Except in autumn,an increasing trend for temperature daily range is found in other seasons over the recent ten years,which was possibly caused by the decreasing of cloudy quantity.
2006, 34(1):73-77.
Abstract:
Base on the compound analysis of radiosonde data from 1980 to 1999,the ambient fields of hail events in springtime in Fujian Province were summarized.The main weather patterns which engender hails in Fujian are: moderate cold shear,moderate vortex and cold shear,westward deflection vortex and cold shear,southward deflection cold shear,and westward deflection cold shear.The main influencing weather systems are: upper-level westerly trough,southern branch trough,subtropical jet,strong low-level southwest jet and quasi-stationary shear line.An analysis was made of the thermal and dynamic conditions and water vapor conditions during the hail events.It is found that Fujian Province was in the area of high-energy,strong potential instability,and high water vapor flux during the hail events.It was in favor of the convection development over Fujian Province that there was convergence at the low level and divergence at the upper-level.
Base on the compound analysis of radiosonde data from 1980 to 1999,the ambient fields of hail events in springtime in Fujian Province were summarized.The main weather patterns which engender hails in Fujian are: moderate cold shear,moderate vortex and cold shear,westward deflection vortex and cold shear,southward deflection cold shear,and westward deflection cold shear.The main influencing weather systems are: upper-level westerly trough,southern branch trough,subtropical jet,strong low-level southwest jet and quasi-stationary shear line.An analysis was made of the thermal and dynamic conditions and water vapor conditions during the hail events.It is found that Fujian Province was in the area of high-energy,strong potential instability,and high water vapor flux during the hail events.It was in favor of the convection development over Fujian Province that there was convergence at the low level and divergence at the upper-level.
2006, 34(1):78-82.
Abstract:
The temperature,precipitation around last century retrieved by tree ring in the northern and middle parts of Ningxia were used to fit and prolong the series of precipitation and temperature anomaly in the sandy lands to the east of the yellow river and the climate tendency in the last century was analyzed.The climate features there were studied in detail using the meteorological data from six typical stations.The results show that it was cold and dry in the first three decades;then turned warm and wet till the mid of the 1950s.After the end of 1950s,there was a typical cold and wet period,and after the 1960s it was relatively cold and dry.Since the middle 1980s till now,it was relatively warm and dry.The temperature,precipitation,evaporation,relative humidity and average wind velocity varied in different places and different periods.
The temperature,precipitation around last century retrieved by tree ring in the northern and middle parts of Ningxia were used to fit and prolong the series of precipitation and temperature anomaly in the sandy lands to the east of the yellow river and the climate tendency in the last century was analyzed.The climate features there were studied in detail using the meteorological data from six typical stations.The results show that it was cold and dry in the first three decades;then turned warm and wet till the mid of the 1950s.After the end of 1950s,there was a typical cold and wet period,and after the 1960s it was relatively cold and dry.Since the middle 1980s till now,it was relatively warm and dry.The temperature,precipitation,evaporation,relative humidity and average wind velocity varied in different places and different periods.
2006, 34(1):83-87.
Abstract:
Maximum and minimum temperature can be used as a key indicator or index for climate change or the intensity of an extreme climatic event.By using the observational temperature gradient data at the heights of 1,2,4,10,16 m obtained in the Dingxi Arid Meteorological and Environment Experimental Base from 17 October 2003 to 6 April 2004,the characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature changes were analyzed.The results show that daily maximum temperature decreased from lower layer to upper layer,while the minimum temperature increased,which accords with the law of exponent/logarithm.The maximum temperature appeared(2.5) hours after the noon,and if there was a severe weather event,the maximum mostly appeared after 20:00.The minimum temperature appeared first at the height of 2 m,and mostly appeared before sunrise at the heights lower than 4 m while appeared after sunrise at the heights higher than 4 m.
Maximum and minimum temperature can be used as a key indicator or index for climate change or the intensity of an extreme climatic event.By using the observational temperature gradient data at the heights of 1,2,4,10,16 m obtained in the Dingxi Arid Meteorological and Environment Experimental Base from 17 October 2003 to 6 April 2004,the characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature changes were analyzed.The results show that daily maximum temperature decreased from lower layer to upper layer,while the minimum temperature increased,which accords with the law of exponent/logarithm.The maximum temperature appeared(2.5) hours after the noon,and if there was a severe weather event,the maximum mostly appeared after 20:00.The minimum temperature appeared first at the height of 2 m,and mostly appeared before sunrise at the heights lower than 4 m while appeared after sunrise at the heights higher than 4 m.
17 Analysis of Characteristics of Doppler Weather Radar Images during a Precipitation Process in Spring
2006, 34(1):88-92.
Abstract:
A large-scale heavy rainfall process occurred in North China on 25 April 2004 is analyzed,and the methods of using Doppler weather radar radial velocity PPI and vertical velocity profile(VWP) are introduced.Based on the two radar products,the situation of cold and thermal advection,convergence and divergence at different altitudes can be identified comprehensively and then either ascending or descending air can be identified,so to deduce the occurrence of rainfall.Meanwhile,according to the analyses of this rainfall case,some Doppler weather radar image characteristics during heavy rainfall in spring are discussed.It is found out that there are obvious characteristics in the two radar products at the different stages of rainfall development(formation,development,and dissipation),which provides some reference for rainfall forecasting in spring.
A large-scale heavy rainfall process occurred in North China on 25 April 2004 is analyzed,and the methods of using Doppler weather radar radial velocity PPI and vertical velocity profile(VWP) are introduced.Based on the two radar products,the situation of cold and thermal advection,convergence and divergence at different altitudes can be identified comprehensively and then either ascending or descending air can be identified,so to deduce the occurrence of rainfall.Meanwhile,according to the analyses of this rainfall case,some Doppler weather radar image characteristics during heavy rainfall in spring are discussed.It is found out that there are obvious characteristics in the two radar products at the different stages of rainfall development(formation,development,and dissipation),which provides some reference for rainfall forecasting in spring.
18 Application of New Airborne AgI Flare Seeding Generator to Precipitation Enhancement with Aircraft
2006, 34(1):93-97.
Abstract:
文章對我國新型AgI末端燃燒器的研制情況、結構和改造及其使用作了介紹,簡述了這種新催化工具的特點,結合2002年12月至2004年9月,新型AgI末端燃燒器在河北、河南、青海、山東和北京飛機人工增雨探測作業試驗,介紹了新型AgI末端燃燒器在3種增雨探測作業機型中的使用情況,并就其中遇到的問題進行了討論,對如何結合探測作業飛機上所加載的GPS導航數據記錄系統及其它輔助記錄數據進行催化作業情況記錄進行了說明.
文章對我國新型AgI末端燃燒器的研制情況、結構和改造及其使用作了介紹,簡述了這種新催化工具的特點,結合2002年12月至2004年9月,新型AgI末端燃燒器在河北、河南、青海、山東和北京飛機人工增雨探測作業試驗,介紹了新型AgI末端燃燒器在3種增雨探測作業機型中的使用情況,并就其中遇到的問題進行了討論,對如何結合探測作業飛機上所加載的GPS導航數據記錄系統及其它輔助記錄數據進行催化作業情況記錄進行了說明.
2006, 34(1):98-101.
Abstract:
通過對國內外太陽總輻射氣候學計算方法的分析對比,確定Q=Q0(a+bS)為山東省太陽輻射最佳計算公式。根據濟南、福山、莒縣1961~2000年歷年各月的總輻射和日照百分率,采用最小二乘法擬合出公式中各月的經驗系數,并計算了山東省各地的月太陽總輻射。結果表明:山東省太陽總輻射年變化都表現為5月最大,12月最小。年太陽總輻射在4488~5692 MJ.m-2之間,北部多,南部少,其中年總輻射最大值出現在魯北的慶云,其值高達5692 MJ.m-2,最低值出現在魯西南的曹縣,其值為4488 MJ.m-2。
通過對國內外太陽總輻射氣候學計算方法的分析對比,確定Q=Q0(a+bS)為山東省太陽輻射最佳計算公式。根據濟南、福山、莒縣1961~2000年歷年各月的總輻射和日照百分率,采用最小二乘法擬合出公式中各月的經驗系數,并計算了山東省各地的月太陽總輻射。結果表明:山東省太陽總輻射年變化都表現為5月最大,12月最小。年太陽總輻射在4488~5692 MJ.m-2之間,北部多,南部少,其中年總輻射最大值出現在魯北的慶云,其值高達5692 MJ.m-2,最低值出現在魯西南的曹縣,其值為4488 MJ.m-2。
2006, 34(1):102-106.
Abstract:
The analysis of climate change and its effect on the soil moisture of grasslands has great significance to the understanding of the reasons for grassland degradation and the recovering of the grassland ecosystem.Based on the 40year climate data and 20-year observational data of soil moisture,the climate change trend and its effect on soil moisture over the Inner Mongolia typical steppe are analyzed by using the linear trend method,etc.The results show that the 40-year climate change trend over the Inner Mongolia typical steppe is similar with that of the global climate;the main factors influencing soil moisture are precipitation and evaporation,but air temperature influences indirectly the soil moisture through affecting evaporation.The difference between evaporation and precipitation is a direct index for analyzing the effect of climate change on soil moisture.Climate warming results in the increase of water evaporation,and thus accelerates the drying rate of soil under the condition of insignificant precipitation increase.
The analysis of climate change and its effect on the soil moisture of grasslands has great significance to the understanding of the reasons for grassland degradation and the recovering of the grassland ecosystem.Based on the 40year climate data and 20-year observational data of soil moisture,the climate change trend and its effect on soil moisture over the Inner Mongolia typical steppe are analyzed by using the linear trend method,etc.The results show that the 40-year climate change trend over the Inner Mongolia typical steppe is similar with that of the global climate;the main factors influencing soil moisture are precipitation and evaporation,but air temperature influences indirectly the soil moisture through affecting evaporation.The difference between evaporation and precipitation is a direct index for analyzing the effect of climate change on soil moisture.Climate warming results in the increase of water evaporation,and thus accelerates the drying rate of soil under the condition of insignificant precipitation increase.
2006, 34(1):107-111.
Abstract:
Forest-fire disasters occurs frequently in Henan Province, and great damage has been caused by forest-fire disasters.Without an effective countermeasure against forest fires,unnecessary economic damage and valuable forest resources depletion often occur.An automatic and procedural preventing system of forest-fire disasters is built by means of SSS technology on the basis of the long-time satellite remote sensing practice.The technical features and the main functions of this system are described in detail.The software-controlled operation is realized from data collecting and processing to service providing,and the fire-point images and weather and forest-fire risk forecasts can be superposed with GIS information through SSS technology in the system.
Forest-fire disasters occurs frequently in Henan Province, and great damage has been caused by forest-fire disasters.Without an effective countermeasure against forest fires,unnecessary economic damage and valuable forest resources depletion often occur.An automatic and procedural preventing system of forest-fire disasters is built by means of SSS technology on the basis of the long-time satellite remote sensing practice.The technical features and the main functions of this system are described in detail.The software-controlled operation is realized from data collecting and processing to service providing,and the fire-point images and weather and forest-fire risk forecasts can be superposed with GIS information through SSS technology in the system.
2006, 34(1):112-115.
Abstract:
The China Mobile GRPS wireless communication technology was adopted instead of the routine telephone dial mode in the collection and transmission of observation data of 22 automatic weather stations.The results of the trial run in meteorological operation indicate that GPRS communication is of great advantages,such as real-time online transmitting,rapid logon,reasonable fee,easy monitoring,being safe and reliable,etc.Especially while meteorological data transmission interrupted suddenly or frequently,GPRS performed well.GPRS communication is suitable to the collection and transmission of observation data of the mesoscale automatic weather station network.According to the development prospects of GPRS,the future application in the(meteorological) service is also discussed.
The China Mobile GRPS wireless communication technology was adopted instead of the routine telephone dial mode in the collection and transmission of observation data of 22 automatic weather stations.The results of the trial run in meteorological operation indicate that GPRS communication is of great advantages,such as real-time online transmitting,rapid logon,reasonable fee,easy monitoring,being safe and reliable,etc.Especially while meteorological data transmission interrupted suddenly or frequently,GPRS performed well.GPRS communication is suitable to the collection and transmission of observation data of the mesoscale automatic weather station network.According to the development prospects of GPRS,the future application in the(meteorological) service is also discussed.
2006, 34(1):116-118.
Abstract:
The auto-checking of surface temperature by means of computers is one of key difficulties in the auto-checking of surface meteorological data technically.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of surface temperature observation,a method of standard error(neighboring difference) for automatically checking surface temperature observation data was presented.The steps of this method are introduced in detail.Since the method is the computational simulation of the manual check essentially and the objective computational method is applied,the check quality is the same as the manual check,and even more complete.As a test,the method has been applied in the auto-checking software of surface meteorological data in Zhejiang Province.It has been proven that it shows good effectiveness for improving the quality of surface temperature data check.
The auto-checking of surface temperature by means of computers is one of key difficulties in the auto-checking of surface meteorological data technically.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of surface temperature observation,a method of standard error(neighboring difference) for automatically checking surface temperature observation data was presented.The steps of this method are introduced in detail.Since the method is the computational simulation of the manual check essentially and the objective computational method is applied,the check quality is the same as the manual check,and even more complete.As a test,the method has been applied in the auto-checking software of surface meteorological data in Zhejiang Province.It has been proven that it shows good effectiveness for improving the quality of surface temperature data check.
External LinksChina Meteorological AdministrationCMA Meteorological Observation CentreChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing Meteorological ServiceNational Satellite Meteorological Center
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.