Time-Lagged Ensemble Forecast of Hourly Precipitation Based on SWCWARMS Model
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Abstract:
Based on the hourly precipitation from the 9 km×9 km resolution SWCWARMS model, ensemble members are formed by the timelagged ensemble forecast method. A new hourly precipitation forecast is obtained from the ensemble average of differential weights, which are calculated by the SAL scores of ensemble members. This study verified the timelagged ensemble and the model uptodate forecast of hourly precipitation in Sichuan from 1 to 31 August 2019 by the SAL, TS and BIAS evaluation method. The results show: (1) The timelagged ensemble method led to improvement on the overall level of the rainfall intensity and location forecast. The values L and A of SAL scores were both closer to 0. (2) The clearrain TS score of timelagged ensemble forecast was higher, and the percentage increase was about 10%. The method can reduce the false alarm of rain forecast. (3) In the lead time of nowcasting, the improvement of the high intensity precipitation forecast was also obvious.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.