Verification of MultiModel Forecasting of Severe Precipitation Areasin Shandong from May to September in 2014 and 2015
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Abstract:
Because of forecasting deviation of severe precipitation model with observation, TS verification cannot characterize well the capability of severe precipitation forecasting models. The verification method about precipitation area is formulated, and based on it and the models of EnWRF, WRFRUC, T639, and ECthin forecast, 16 severe precipitation area forecasts from May to September in 2014 and 2015 in Shandong are verified with observation. The results show that except local severe convective weather caused by the motion of subtropical high, the other processes all have referential meaning. EnWRF and ECthin are the best, with the forecast of precipitation area highly similar to observation, and the two model are complementary. In most cases, the model forecast for precipitation is less than the observation. ECthin and EnWRF have the least number of missing reports and most accurate cases, and T639 model is the next, whereas WRFRUC model has the most number of missing reports and lowest accuracy. For the forecasts with deviation, the directions of model forecast precipitation area are generaly more west or north than normal comparing with observation.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.