Verification and Assessment of Forecasting Performance of General Circulation Systems in Inner Mongolia by T639 and EC Model Products
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Abstract:
Based on T639 and EC model data and ECMWF reanalysis data over 500 hPa in 2012, the forecast products are validated by the synoptic verification method in terms of the starting time, moving velocity, trough line position, and central intensity of the weather systems. The results show that the forecasting of synoptic systems in Inner Mongolia is relatively accurate based on T639 and EC models, especially for 36 hour forecasting. The accuracy of EC model forecast products is better than that of the T639 model, but the stability of EC model products is poorer in the eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The accuracy of T639 model products is greater than 80% in the starting time, moving velocity, trough line position, and central intensity of the systems for 36 hour forecasting. The accuracy of EC model products is higher than that of T639 model products, with the accuracy being greater than 80% in four test indexes for 48 hour forecasting. The prediction capabilities of both T639 and EC model products decrease with the increasing of lead time. There is a significantly correlation between forecast and observation for both models, corresponding well with the distribution of correlation coefficients, and the high value centers of standard deviation are in agreement with the low value centers of correlation coefficient.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.