Archive > Volume 38 Issue 2 > 2010,38(2):263-269 Prev Next

Causes of Geological Disasters in QinlingBashan Area and Their Forecast and Warning

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    Abstract:
    The occurrence and development regularity of geologic disasters over the QinlingBashan areas are studied statistically by using the geologic disaster and precipitation data from 1955 to 2007, as well as the data from intensive observation， AWS (automatic weather station), and hydrological stations. The formation mechanisms of geologic disasters and relation with the intensity and duration of precipitation are investigated and the critical precipitation indexes for various disasterprone areas are devised. An automatic refined operational forecasting and warning system of geologic disasters is thus established, in combination with the existing operational refined geologic disaster forecasting procedures of the China Meteorological Administration. The application experiment in 2008 proved that its forecasting accuracy is better than that of the original GIScoupled model.

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