Changes of FloodSeason Severe Precipitation over South China in 2071-2100
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Abstract:
Based on the results simulated by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), which is developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, the changes of floodseason heavy rainfall under tthe SRES B2 scenario over South China during 2071〖CD*2〗2100 are analyzed. It is shown that PRECIS has the capability to simulate floodseason severe heavy rainfall. The percentage of severe heavy rainfall to total rainfall in 2071〖CD*2〗2100 would increase relative to 1961〖CD*2〗1990 (the baseline). The percentage of the number of severe rainnig days in 2071〖CD*2〗2100 is analyzed, and the results show that there would be a maximum center in the centralnorth part of Guangxi and the northern Fujian during the earlier floodseason, and there would be a maximum center in Guangdong and Fujian during the later floodseason. The change percentage in each month during flood season is positive over South China except for Hainan. The occurrence frequency of floodseason severe precipitation events in 2071〖CD*2〗2100 would increase obviously.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.