Prediction and Analysis of Typhoon Bilis and Geami with AREM
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Abstract:
The circulation patterns of the typhoon BILIS and GEAMI are described and summarized. Both occurred in July 2006 over the West Pacific Ocean, landed in the southeast coast of China, and caused serious damages. Based on the outputs of the 700 hPa stream field， 900 hPa wind field and rainfall field of AREM (Advanced Regional Eta Model), the predictions of landing time, landing location, moving route and the maximum wind and precipitation of typhoon are analyzed. The results show that Bilis landed at Xiapu, Fujian Province at 12:50 14 July, then moved to west, and there formed a northwest rain zone between 21°N and 28°N; Geami landed at Jinjiang, Fujian Province at 15:50 25 July, moved to west and there formed a southwestnortheast rain zone over Southeast China. Both brought severe meteorological disasters and life and wealth damages to the provinces on the way. As a whole, AREM forecasts of maximum winds around the typhoon center and the position, shape, moving direction, and intensity of typhoon rain belts are satisfactory, and the forecast for some strong rain centers are good, but the bias between fact and simulation are obvious for most strong rain centers. The predictions of the landing times and positions of the typhoons are good; the bias is small; and the predictions of the moving route also basically accord with the facts, but there also are some biases in the positions of the typhoon centers.
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P456.7 P481
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.