Application of Threshold Auto-Regressive Model to Meiyu Rainfall Forecasting
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Abstract:
The forcasting of Meiyu rainfall is very important to industry and agriculture in Taizhou.According to the distributing features of Meiyu in the area,a convenient and practical method is put forward.A Meiyu predication experiment using the threshold auto-regressive model,advanced genetic algorithm,and related techniques was carried out in Taizhou.The graded forecasting method was adopted in predicting Meiyu rainfall and the statistical results are provided.The result shows that the fitting-rate and the accuracy are 78% and 80%,respectively.
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Clc Number:
P426.62 O212.1
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.