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華北區域暖季“孤立”對流初生客觀識別方法和時空分布特征
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華北區域氣象中心科技創新項目(HBXM202412)、河北省自然科學基金(D2024304002)、中國氣象局創新發展專項(CXFZ2025J106)、中國氣象局水文氣象重點開放實驗室開放研究課題(23SWQXM007)資助


An Objective Identification Method and Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of “Isolated” Convection Initiation during Warm Season in North China Region
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    摘要:

    為了得到華北區域暖季(5—9月)對流初生(Convection Initiation,CI)的時空分布特征,本文基于2022—2024年暖季華北區域雷達組合反射率拼圖資料,設計了一種“孤立”CI客觀識別算法,結果表明:①通過對CI客觀識別算法中的對流塊面積下限A和篩選半徑R參數進行敏感性實驗,發現CI識別數量對這兩個參數較為敏感,設置較大的對流塊面積下限A,可以過濾掉未發展起來的對流塊,設置較大的篩選半徑R,可以過濾掉部分已識別的對流塊鄰近處的新生對流。②時間分布特征為7月和8月CI個數最多,5月最少;CI日變化存在明顯的單峰結構,峰值出現在13:00—17:00。③空間分布特征為CI頻發地主要分布在陰山、燕山、呂梁山、太行山、中條山、秦嶺東段余脈、泰沂山脈西側和北側,其中太行山南段、秦嶺東段余脈等區域是CI特別頻發區;而內蒙古高原、河套高原、山西兩側山脈之間的盆地、華北平原均是CI少發地。可見,CI頻發地主要集中在山地,而CI少發地在平坦高原、盆地和平原地區。

    Abstract:

    To investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of Convective Initiation (CI) during the warm season (May-September) over the North China region, this study utilises composite reflectivity mosaic data from regional radar networks across North China for the warm seasons spanning 2022 to 2024. An objective identification algorithm specifically designed to detect “isolated” CI events is developed. Leveraging this algorithm, a comprehensive CI database for North China is subsequently constructed. Detailed statistical analyses are then performed on this database to elucidate both the temporal and spatial patterns of CI occurrence within the region. The principal findings derived from this research are summarised as follows: (1) Sensitivity experiments focus on two key parameters within the objective CI identification algorithm: the lower threshold for convective cell area (A) and the screening radius (R). The results demonstrate a significant sensitivity in the number of identified CI events to variations in these parameters. Specifically, setting a larger threshold value for the minimum convective cell area (A) effectively filters out nascent convective cells that fail to develop further. Conversely, employing a larger screening radius (R) aids in filtering out newly initiated convective cells occurring in close proximity to pre-existing, already identified convective cells, thereby refining the detection to focus on truly isolated initiation events. (2) The temporal distribution of CI events during the warm season in North China exhibits distinct patterns. Monthly analysis reveals that the highest frequency of CI occurrences is concentrated in July and August, while May registers the lowest number. Diurnally, CI events display a pronounced unimodal structure, with a clear peak in activity observed between 13:00 and 17:00. (3) Spatially, CI events during the warm season in North China show a highly heterogeneous distribution. High-frequency CI zones are predominantly concentrated along major mountain ranges and their foothills. These include the Yinshan Mountains in Inner Mongolia, the northern Yanshan Mountains near Beijing, the Lvliang Mountains on the western flank of Shanxi Province; the Taihang Mountains along the eastern border of Shanxi Province, the Zhongtiao Mountains in southern Shanxi, the eastern extensions of the Qinling Mountains in Henan Province, and the western and northern flanks of the Taiyi Mountains in Shandong Province. Notably, exceptionally high CI frequency zones are identified within the southern segment of the Taihang Mountains (eastern Shanxi) and the eastern Qinling Mountain extensions in Henan. Conversely, regions exhibiting significantly lower CI frequency encompass the Inner Mongolia Plateau, the Hetao Plateau, the basins situated between the mountain ranges flanking Shanxi Province, and the expansive North China Plain. This clear spatial dichotomy underscores that CI hotspots are overwhelmingly associated with mountainous terrain, while CI-sparse areas predominantly coincide with relatively flat plateaus, basins, and plains. These research findings, detailing the objective identification methodology and the resulting spatiotemporal climatology of CI over North China, provide valuable insights and offer a substantive reference for enhancing CI potential forecasting and nowcasting capabilities in the region.

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劉潔莉,胡志群,張磊,高珍,杜佩德,韓琛惠.華北區域暖季“孤立”對流初生客觀識別方法和時空分布特征[J].氣象科技,2025,53(5):681~690

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-14
  • 定稿日期:2025-08-19
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-10-30
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