中國東西部閃電活動雷達特征對比分析
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中國氣象局氣象能力提升聯合研究專項(23NLTSZ002)、中國氣象局創新發展專項(CXFZ2024J001)、中國氣象局青年創新團隊(CMA2023QN06)和上海市氣象局科技人才類項目(KJRC202403,KJRC202411)共同資助


Comparative Analysis of Radar Characteristics of Lightning Activity in Eastern and Western China
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    摘要:

    為加深中國東西部地區閃電形成機理的認識,進而為東西部地區閃電預報預警業務提供差異化的經驗和借鑒。采用閃電定位儀、天氣雷達組網拼圖產品和實況探空等多源觀測,對上海和喀什閃電的時空分布特征及其對應的雷達三維特征進行了統計分析,并探索導致東西部地區閃電回波特征差異的成因。結果顯示:上海和喀什閃電集中在5—9月,高發于午后至傍晚,同時喀什閃電與地形密切相關,具有夜發性。上海平均閃電回擊密度明顯高于喀什,平均閃電回擊密度比約為732.1∶1。上海地區閃電對應回波單體的組合反射率因子強度、回波頂高和垂直液態水含量高于喀什地區;上海地區閃電對應回波單體在垂直結構上的伸展高度明顯高于喀什地區,其中30 dBz,35 dBz和40 dBz回波分別超過-20 ℃層,-10 ℃層和0 ℃層高度對上海閃電的預報預警具備較大指示意義,而回波頂高超過-10 ℃層和30 dBz回波高度達到0 ℃層對喀什閃電預警業務指導性更強。兩地閃電活動和雷達特征的差異主要是動力和水汽共同造成。

    Abstract:

    Lightning, as one of the frequent natural disasters in China, poses significant meteorological hazards. Weather radar systems, with their inherent advantages of high spatiotemporal resolution, enable precise characterisation of lightning formation mechanisms and evolutionary patterns through synergistic integration with lightning detection datasets. This paper analyses lightning forecasting and early warning services in the eastern and western regions of China, using Shanghai and Kashgar as representatives. By leveraging multi-source observations, including lightning locators, weather radar mosaic products, and sounding data, an annual statistical analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution, three-dimensional characteristics of lightning, and their corresponding radar signatures is conducted in these two regions. The study explores the causes of the differences in lightning characteristics between the eastern and western regions. The results indicate that: (1) Both Shanghai and Kashgar exhibit concentrated lightning activity between May and September, with peak occurrences from afternoon to evening. Notably, Kashgar demonstrates distinct nocturnal characteristics in lightning distribution due to topographic effects. Geospatial analysis reveals contrasting spatial patterns: Shanghai’s lightning hotspots predominantly cluster over urbanised areas and land-water interfaces, whereas Kashgar’s lightning distribution shows strong orographic correlation, with maximum density zones located along the southern foothills of the Western Tianshan Mountains, eastern flanks of the Pamir Plateau, and northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains. Statistically, the average lightning stroke density in Shanghai significantly surpasses that in Kashgar, maintaining a ratio of approximately 732.1∶1. (2) The combined reflectivity factor intensity, echo top height, and vertical liquid water content associated with lightning echo cells in Shanghai are markedly greater than those observed in Kashgar. The extension height of lightning echo cells in Shanghai is substantially higher than that in Kashgar. Notably, the 30 dBz, 35 dBz, and 40 dBz echo exceeding the -20 ℃, -10 ℃, and 0 ℃ layer height serves as a crucial indicator for lightning forecasting and early warning in Shanghai, whereas for Kashgar, the echo top height surpassing the -10 ℃ layer and the 30 dBz echo reaching the 0 ℃ layer hold greater predictive value. (3) Lightning activity is formed under the combined effects of three essential factors: sufficient atmospheric instability energy, dynamic lifting mechanisms, and adequate moisture supply. Comparative analysis reveals that during thunderstorm days, Shanghai exhibits significantly higher values of Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE), mid-level Relative Humidity (midRH), and Precipitable Water (PW) compared to Kashgar, while demonstrating lower Most Unstable Lifted Index (MULI) values. These meteorological parameters indicate stronger convective activity in Shanghai, where intense updrafts transport abundant moisture to upper colder layers. This enhanced vertical transport mechanism creates more favourable conditions for charge separation processes, making Shanghai more prone to lightning activity than Kashgar.

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王鵬飛,管理,漆梁波,陳波,陶嵐,陳賽華.中國東西部閃電活動雷達特征對比分析[J].氣象科技,2025,53(4):595~605

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-06
  • 定稿日期:2025-05-07
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-08-27
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