山西省夏季降水季節內振蕩演變的氣候特征
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國家自然基金(42105012)、中國氣象局復盤總結專項(FPZJ2023-020)、山西省氣象局面上項目(SXKMSQH20236309)共同資助


Climatological Characteristics of Intraseasonal Oscillation of Summer Precipitation in Shanxi
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    大氣季節內振蕩(ISO)特征研究對揭示次季節尺度天氣氣候演變機理及提升次季節預測能力具有重要科學意義?;?980—2022年山西省108個國家氣象觀測站日降水資料和NCEP/NCAR再分析資料,對山西省夏季降水和大氣環流典型ISO時空演變的氣候特征進行了分析。結果表明:①山西省夏季降水具有顯著的10~50 d ISO特征,降水ISO強度與降水量呈顯著正相關,二者均在21世紀以后呈上升趨勢;降水ISO存在明顯的空間差異,降水量越大的區域ISO越強,山西省南部和東、西部山區ISO最為活躍。②利用位相合成方法,分析山西省夏季兩個具有典型ISO特征的降水及對應的水汽輸送循環過程,ISO降水的演變與整層水汽輸送的ISO密切相關,副熱帶西太平洋低頻反氣旋水汽輸送的增強(減弱)和西進北抬(東撤南移)對降水ISO的循環起到重要作用,西太平洋低頻反氣旋西側異常東南氣流向西偏北方向的水汽輸送發展移動至山西上空,山西降水進入ISO最為活躍的位相。

    Abstract:

    The study of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) characteristics is crucial for both understanding internal variability and improving prediction skill at the sub-seasonal time scale. Based on daily precipitation from 108 national meteorological stations across Shanxi and NCEP/NCAR daily atmospheric reanalysis datasets spanning 1980 to 2022, this study investigates the climatological spatiotemporal evolution of summer precipitation ISO in Shanxi and its association with atmospheric circulation by using statistical methods of Lanczos filtering, power spectrum analysis, and composite analysis. The main findings are as follows: (1) Summer precipitation in Shanxi shows a significant 10-50-day ISO signal. The intensity of the precipitation ISO displays a significant and positive correlation with precipitation, with a high temporal correlation value of 0.88 and a consistent increasing trend after 2000. Specifically, precipitation increases at a rate of 35.4 mm/decade, while ISO intensity increases by 0.27 (mm·d-1)/decade. Spatially, areas with higher precipitation generally experience stronger ISO, and the most active ISO centres are located in southern Shanxi and the mountainous areas. (2) Two typical summer precipitation ISO cycles in Shanxi exhibit three-stage evolution according to their composite analysis. The initial stage is characterised by a weakening of drought conditions and the onset of positive precipitation anomalies in parts of Shanxi; the active stage features the expansion and intensification of positive precipitation anomalies until peak precipitation progresses southward to southern Shanxi; and the weakening stage begins when ISO-induced positive precipitation anomalies retreat and terminates when the negative precipitation anomalies re-emerge over most parts of Shanxi. (3) The evolution of precipitation ISO is closely linked to vertically integrated water vapour transport. The enhancement (weakening) and westward-northward (eastward-southward) shift of low-frequency anticyclonic water vapour transport over the subtropical western Pacific plays a vital role in regulating the ISO precipitation cycle. During the dry phase, the water vapour transport is too weak to reach Shanxi. As the anomalous anticyclone shifts westward and northward, the ISO enters its active stage, accompanied by strengthened and persistent southeasterly water vapour transport, placing Shanxi in a water vapour convergence zone. As this transport weakens and retreats eastward, the water vapour convergence zone gradually shifts out of Shanxi. After the weakening stage, a new ISO cycle restarts. This study elucidates the climatological spatiotemporal evolution of summer precipitation ISO in Shanxi and its synergistic interaction with atmospheric circulation, providing a scientific foundation for regional sub-seasonal precipitation forecasting and offering new insights into the ISO characteristics and mechanisms over mid-latitude regions with complex terrain.

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陳穎,王文春,王林,李山山,王大勇,王曉瓊.山西省夏季降水季節內振蕩演變的氣候特征[J].氣象科技,2025,53(4):535~544

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-20
  • 定稿日期:2025-05-21
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-08-27
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