西南山地降水數值模擬的尺度適應性研究
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國家自然科學基金項目(U2142213,42175167)、中國氣象局能力提升聯合研究專項(22NLTSZ006)、中國沙漠氣象科學研究基金(Sqj2023022)、中國氣象局青年創新團隊(CMA2023QN06)共同資助


Study on Scale Adaptation of Precipitation Simulation in Southwest Mountainous
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    摘要:

    隨著數值天氣預報模式的水平分辨率不斷提高,在對流參數化方案的“灰色區域”(1~10 km)內,積云不足以被模式網格尺度顯示分辨,以至傳統的積云對流參數化方案難以較好地適用不同分辨率下對降水的模擬,因此發展尺度適應(Scale-Aware)積云參數化方案是數值模式精細化發展趨勢之一。通過在中國氣象局中尺度天氣數值預報系統(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale model,CMA-MESO)模式中引入尺度適應的KFeta(Kain-Fritsch eta)積云對流參數化方案,組合3種分辨率(1 km、3 km、10 km)對中國西南山地地區2023年7月11—12日的一次降水過程進行數值模擬試驗,并就2023年6月17—23日的降水過程開展為期7 d的批量試驗。結果表明:①在個例試驗中,尺度適應方案對于降水雨帶和降水強度模擬較好,強降水中心的模擬有一定優勢,隨分辨率提高尺度適應組的降水強度和落區更接近實況,極大程度減少了由積云引起的虛假性降水,提高了網格降水量。②應用尺度適應方案后的模擬結果顯示強對流區域的組合反射率因子、垂直速度模擬結果更優。③批量試驗中,在西南山地地區尺度適應方案的降水模擬結果較穩定,尤其在中雨及以上量級模擬結果優勢較強,相比原方案其降水TS評分整體提高了4%??傮w而言,尺度適應方案對西南山地地區強降水預報性能較好,為改進現行數值模式強降水預報提供了一定依據。

    Abstract:

    With the continuous improvement of the horizontal resolution of the numerical weather prediction model, cumulus clouds are not distinguishable by the grid scale in the “grey area” (1-10 km) of the convective parameterisation scheme, making the traditional cumulus convective parameterisation scheme difficult to apply to the simulation of precipitation at different resolutions. Therefore, the development of scale-aware cumulus cloud parameterisation schemes is one of the development trends of numerical model refinement. By introducing the scale-aware KFeta (Kain-Fritsch eta) convective parameterisation scheme into the CMA-MESO (China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale model) model, the paper combines three resolutions (1 km, 3 km, and 10 km) and designs three sets of experiments so that a numerical simulation test is carried out on a precipitation process on 11-12 July 2023, in the mountainous area of southwest China, and a 7-day batch test is carried out on the precipitation process on 17-23 June 2023. This is done to test and evaluate the effect of the scale adaptation scheme on precipitation simulation in the southwest mountainous area. The results show that: (1) In the case experiment, the scale adaptation scheme has a good grasp of the precipitation rain band and precipitation intensity, and the simulation of the heavy precipitation centre has certain advantages. With the increase in resolution, the precipitation intensity and falling area of the scale adaptation group are closer to reality, which greatly reduces the false precipitation caused by cumulus clouds and increases the grid precipitation. (2) The combined reflectance factor and vertical velocity simulation results in the strong convection region of the scale adaptation scheme are better. (3) In the batch test, the scale adaptation scheme has a good and stable simulation ability for precipitation in the southwest mountain area, especially the simulation results of the scale adaptation scheme for moderate rain and above, which are more advantageous, and the precipitation TS score of the original scheme improves by 4% overall. In general, the scale adaptation scheme performs well in the forecast of heavy precipitation in the southwest mountainous area, providing a basis for improving the current numerical model of heavy precipitation forecasts.

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馬怡軒,于翡,徐國強.西南山地降水數值模擬的尺度適應性研究[J].氣象科技,2025,53(4):508~519

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-15
  • 定稿日期:2025-05-07
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-08-27
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