高分辨率臺風數值模式有限區域自適應設置方法及其應用試驗
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An Adaptive Setting-Up Method of Limited Area for High-Resolution Typhoon Numerical Model and Its Application Experiments
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    摘要:

    高分辨率數值模式在臺風預報業務中面臨計算量、預報時效性、預報技巧的平衡難題。為了在能保證臺風預報技巧前提下節約計算機資源、滿足高時效性業務要求,將一種自適應的臺風模擬區域客觀計算方法與處理同時存在多個臺風的技術相結合,提出臺風有限區域自適應設置方法。將該方法應用于高分辨率CMA-MESO模式建立了一個高分辨率臺風數值預報系統(HRTYM),選取2019年的典型臺風利奇馬及2020、2021年的16個重點臺風過程開展試驗與對比分析。臺風利奇馬的試驗結果顯示,與9 km分辨率的臺風業務模式(CMA-TYM)相比,3 km分辨率的HRTYM需要的計算機資源更少,臺風路徑預報誤差減少20.7%~61.0%,暴雨和大暴雨24 h地面降水TS評分明顯提高。2020、2021年的批量試驗結果顯示HRTYM的臺風路徑預報技巧在27 h后明顯優于 CMA-TYM。

    Abstract:

    The development of refined tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting operations relies on high-resolution regional TC numerical forecasting. However, when faced with both the characteristic of expensive computational consumption of high-resolution models and the characteristic of the wide range of TC forecasting responsibility areas, it is difficult for the existing numerical forecasting techniques to meet the high timeliness requirements in operational high-resolution TC forecasting. High-resolution numerical models face challenges in balancing computational demands, forecast timeliness, and prediction accuracy for TC forecasting operations. To save computational resources and meet high timeliness requirements while ensuring TC forecast accuracy, this study proposes an adaptive setting-up approach of a limited area for the short-term forecast of TC by combining an adaptive objective calculation method for the TC simulation domain with multi-TC coexistence processing technology. This approach dynamically adjusts the position and size of the high-resolution TC model simulation domain based on the forecast timeliness and the actual situation of the TC. By automatically providing a scientifically reasonable simulation domain, the computer resource consumption is reduced without losing forecasting skills. Applying this approach to the high-resolution CMA-MESO model, a High-Resolution Typhoon Numerical Prediction System (HRTYM) is established. The numerical experiments and comparative analysis are carried out using Typhoon Lekima (2019) and 16 major typhoon events in 2020 and 2021. The experimental results of Typhoon Lekima show that, compared with the 9 km-resolution operational model (CMA-TYM), the 3 km-resolution HRTYM requires fewer computational resources with model integration time reduced by 11.2%-17.5% and storage space reduced by 58.6%-66.7%, the TC track forecast error decreases by 20.7%-61.0%, and the TS scores for 24-hour rainstorm and heavy rainstorm predictions improve significantly. The results of batch experiments in 2020 show that after 24-48 hours of mode integration, the track error of the 3 km-resolution HRTYM decreases by 3.44-34.91 km compared to the 9 km-resolution CMA-TYM, and the results of batch experiments in 2021 show that after 27-48 hours of mode integration, the track error of the 3 km-resolution HRTYM decreases by 0.6-22.35 km compared to the 9 km-resolution CMA-TYM. The results of batch experiments in 2020 and 2021 demonstrate that HRTYM exhibits superior track prediction skill over CMA-TYM beyond 27 hours. The high-resolution TC numerical prediction system applying the adaptive setting-up approach of a limited area for the short-term forecast of TC proposed in this study effectively reduces the cost of computing resources and computer storage space resources and ensures the skill of TC numerical prediction at the same time.

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譚曉偉.高分辨率臺風數值模式有限區域自適應設置方法及其應用試驗[J].氣象科技,2025,53(4):497~507

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-26
  • 定稿日期:2025-05-12
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-08-27
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