基于GIS加權核密度場模型的閃電熱點探測與影響因素分析
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秦嶺和黃土高原生態環境氣象重點實驗室面上基金課題(2021G-4)、陜西省大氣探測技術保障中心“揭榜掛帥 ”項目(2023S-3)共同資助


Detection and Analysis of Lightning Hotspots and Influencing Factors Based on GIS Weighted Kernel Density Field Model
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    摘要:

    本研究利用2017—2023年陜西VLF/LF閃電定位系統地閃數據,基于GIS(Geographic Information System)核密度場模型,建立了基于強度權重的地閃核密度表面;應用熱點探測模型對地閃密度熱點進行提取和等級分類;分析了地閃核密度及其熱點的分布與地形地貌、植被覆蓋等環境因素的關系。研究結果顯示:①利用GIS核密度場模型和熱點探測模型可以準確識別閃電活動密集區域,并深入揭示地閃空間分布特征。②陜西地閃活動存在明顯的時空差異,地閃在夏季發生次數多強度大,春秋季次之,冬季最少;空間分布總體表現為南北高—中間低的空間格局。③核密度在海拔高度1 km以下與海拔高度正相關,在海拔高度1 km以上與海拔高度負相關;地形地貌、植被及兩者交叉項均對核密度產生顯著性差異影響。地形地貌影響的差異超過植被。④中海拔黃土梁峁和中海拔中起伏山地的草地和林區是大型及中大型熱點的主要分布區。

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    This paper presents a detailed analysis of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data collected by the Shaanxi VLF/LF lightning location system over a period of seven years, from 2017 to 2023. The research begins by constructing a CG lightning kernel density surface, which is derived from the collected data and implemented using intensity weighting through a Geographic Information System (GIS) kernel density field model. This model facilitates the visualisation and quantification of lightning activity across the Shaanxi region, thus providing a robust foundation for subsequent analyses. Upon establishing the kernel density surface, the study utilises a hotspot detection model to identify and categorise regions with high lightning density. This crucial step pinpoints specific areas where lightning activity is exceptionally intense, thereby offering vital data for risk assessment and mitigation strategies. The analysis explores the relationships between the distribution of CG lightning kernel density, its identified hotspots, and various environmental factors such as topography and vegetation coverage, both of which significantly influence lightning activity. Key insights revealed by the findings include the effectiveness of the GIS kernel density field model and the hotspot detection model in accurately identifying regions with intense lightning activity. This enhanced understanding of the spatial distribution characteristics of CG lightning is essential for predicting and managing lightning-related hazards. Additionally, the research identifies significant spatiotemporal variations in CG lightning activity within the Shaanxi region. The analysis shows that lightning activity is most frequent and intense during the summer months, followed by spring and autumn, with winter experiencing the least activity. Spatially, the lightning density is higher in the northern and southern parts of Shaanxi, while the central region shows relatively lower density. Further, the study examines the correlation between kernel density and altitude. A positive correlation is observed below 1 km in altitude, suggesting that lightning activity increases with altitude. Above 1 km, however, this trend reverses, with a decrease in kernel density as altitude increases. The research also investigates how topography and vegetation impact kernel density values, revealing that both factors significantly affect kernel density, with topography having a more pronounced impact. This indicates that variations in terrain play a crucial role in shaping the patterns of lightning activity. In conclusion, the study identifies the primary distribution areas for large and medium-large hotspots, predominantly located in grasslands and forest areas within mid-altitude loess ridges and mounds, as well as moderately undulating mountains. These findings are instrumental for targeting lightning protection measures and enhancing safety in these vulnerable areas. Overall, this paper significantly advances understanding of lightning activity in the Shaanxi region, providing valuable insights for future research and practical applications, thereby enriching the scientific community’s resources for better managing the risks associated with lightning.

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李偉,鄧鳳東,孟珍,張晰.基于GIS加權核密度場模型的閃電熱點探測與影響因素分析[J].氣象科技,2025,53(3):438~447

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-09
  • 定稿日期:2025-01-17
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-06-27
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