蘇南地區一次罕見冰粒天氣成因
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江蘇省重點研發計劃社會發展面上項目(BE2022851)和中國氣象局“揭榜掛帥”項目(CMAJBGS202212)、中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2019-043)、江蘇省氣象局科研項目(KQ202417)共同資助


Analysis of Causes of a Rare Ice Pellets Weather in Southern Jiangsu
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    摘要:

    利用多源觀測資料、再分析資料,對2024年2月22—24日蘇南地區的罕見冰粒天氣進行了分析,并對冰粒、凍雨、雪三種相態進行了比較。結果表明:700 hPa西南暖濕急流強盛且穩定維持,為冰粒天氣的形成提供了有利的動力、水汽和溫度層結條件,中層暖濕氣流的發展具有顯著的極端性,蘇南地區700 hPa高度場較常年氣候平均值偏高10~30 gpm(標準差倍數達0.5~1個標準差σ),西南風偏強10 m·s-1,溫度偏高4~5 ℃(標準差倍數≥1.5 σ),中層異常偏暖是蘇南地區出現罕見的長時間冰粒天氣的重要條件之一。逆溫層穩定存在,位于939.8~729.9 hPa之間,平均厚度為1540 m,平均強度為10.2 ℃。穩定維持的中層暖層和低層冷層為冰粒天氣的出現提供了有利的溫度層結條件:暖層的平均厚度為709 m,高度位于779.3~683 hPa之間,暖層溫度≤2.9 ℃;冷層基本位于779.3 hPa以下,最低溫度為-8.7~-7.6 ℃,有利于被暖層部分融化的冰相粒子在下降過程中再次被凍結,最后以冰粒相態降落至地面。冰粒、凍雨、雪三種相態的雷達特征存在差異,對降水相態的識別和相態臨近預報有一定指示意義:雪的反射率因子在30 dBz以下,而冰粒和凍雨的反射率因子較強,一般在45 dBz以下;差分反射率因子(ZDR)大小為冰粒>凍雨>雪,其中冰粒的ZDR最大達4 dB;從相關系數看,冰粒最小,而凍雨和雪接近于1。

    Abstract:

    Using multi-source observation and reanalysis data, the rare ice pellet weather in southern Jiangsu from February 22 to 24, 2024 is analysed, and ice grains, freezing rain, and snow are also compared. The results show that the strong southwest warm wet jet, stably maintained at 700 hPa, provided favourable power, water vapour, and temperature stratification conditions for the formation of ice pellet weather. The development of middle warm wet airflow exhibited significant extremes. The 700 hPa height field in southern Jiangsu was 10-30 gpm higher than the annual average climate (standard deviation multiple of 0.5σ-1σ), and the southwest wind was stronger than the annual average climate by 10 m·s-1, with a 4-5 ℃ higher temperature (standard deviation multiple of 1.5σ). The middle abnormal warming was one of the important conditions for the rare long-term ice pellet weather in southern Jiangsu. The inversion layer was stable, located between 939.8 hPa and 729.9 hPa, with an average thickness of 1540 metres and an average intensity of 10.2 ℃. The stably maintained middle warm layer and low cold layer provided favourable temperature conditions for the occurrence of ice grain weather: the average thickness of the warm layer was 709 metres, the height was between 779.3 hPa and 683 hPa, and the temperature of the warm layer was less than or equal to 2.9 ℃. The cold layer was basically located below 779.3 hPa, and the lowest temperature was between -8.7 ℃ and -7.6 ℃, which was conducive to the ice particles partially melting in the warm layer and being frozen again during the descent process, ultimately falling to the ground as ice particles. The radar characteristics of the three phases (ice particles, freezing rain, and snow) were different, which had certain indicator significance for the identification of precipitation phases and the forecast of phase approaches: the reflectivity factor of snow was below 30 dBz, while the reflectivity factors of ice particles and freezing rain were greater, generally below 45 dBz; the differential reflectance factor (ZDR) was ice particles > freezing rain > snow, and the maximum ZDR of ice particle was 4 dB. From the correlation coefficient (CC), ice particles had the smallest values, while freezing rain and snow were close to 1.

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雷正翠,吳海英,溫靜,黃文彥,夏束薇,李斌,錢雨妃.蘇南地區一次罕見冰粒天氣成因[J].氣象科技,2025,53(3):405~416

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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-08
  • 定稿日期:2024-11-20
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-06-27
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