1953—2023年登陸和影響廈門臺風特征及危險性分析
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上海臺風研究基金項目(TFJJ202411)、海峽氣象開放實驗室開放式課題(HXQX202303)、廈門市社會發展領域指導項目(3502Z20214ZD4012)、福建省氣象局開放式基金項目(2023KJ01)資助


Analysis on Characteristics and Hazards of Typhoon Landing and Impacting Xiamen from 1953 to 2023
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    利用中國氣象局整編的西北太平洋1953—2023年熱帶氣旋最佳路徑數據集、廈門站逐日和1980—2023年逐小時及廈門市區域自動站逐小時觀測資料,揭示了登陸和影響廈門的臺風頻數、生成源地、強度變化特點和風雨致災危險規律。結果表明:①71 a共259個臺風登陸和影響廈門,影響時間近8成集中在7—9月;赤道中東太平洋冷海溫、副高偏弱偏北有利于臺風頻數偏多;最大強度以超強臺風級居多,不同等級臺風頻數年際波動和年代際振蕩特征顯著, 1990年以來影響臺風平均生成位置明顯向西向北偏移。②直接登陸廈門及漳州、且廈門在臺風前進方向右側時,容易出現嚴重風雨災害,單個臺風過程降水極值509.5 mm、極大風速極值為60.0 m·s-1,1614號超強臺風“莫蘭蒂”綜合致災位列第一;2023年“杜蘇芮”和“??迸_風風雨危險呈現典型空間差異。

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    Revealing the features and disaster risks of typhoons impacting Xiamen holds significant scientific and practical value for understanding typhoon hazards and improving disaster risk prevention and mitigation. This study utilises the Northwestern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Best Track dataset produced by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), daily ground observation data from the Xiamen Observatory (1953-2023), hourly precipitation data from the Xiamen Observatory (1980-2023), and hourly data from automatic weather stations across Xiamen (2016-2023). The analysis focuses on the characteristics of typhoon frequency, impact duration, intensity, genesis location, interannual variation, wind and precipitation patterns, and the hazard risks associated with typhoons that make landfall in or affect Xiamen over the past 71 years. The results indicate that Xiamen experiences a total of 259 typhoons over 71 years. The greafest annual occrurence freguency of 9 typhoons occurs in 1961 and 1978, with active typhoon activity during the 1970s to 1990s. Typhoons affect Xiamen from April to December, with nearly 80% occurring between July and September, peaking in August. The frequency of typhoons impacting Xiamen is influenced by multiple factors, including the spatial configuration of sea surface temperature anomalies, variations in the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the patterns of the Western Pacific Subtropical High. Typhoons are less frequent during ENSO developing years and more frequent during ENSO decay years and weak in La Nia years. Nearly 30% of typhoons impacting Xiamen reach super typhoon intensity, showing significant increasing variability since the 1990s. The genesis of typhoons affecting Xiamen is concentrated in the Philippine Sea and the northeastern South China Sea. Notably, the annual average genesis location of typhoons since the 1990s exhibits a significant westward and northward migration. Among 44 typhoons that cause over 100 mm of rainfall in 24 hours, 31 are typhoons that make landfall in Xiamen or follow a southern trajectory, with the extreme precipitation of 509.5 mm caused by Typhoon Tasha (No. 9009). The four direct landfall typhoons bring wind speeds exceeding 41.5 m·s-1, whereas typhoons passing through Taiwan before affecting Xiamen result in weaker wind speeds below 32.7 m·s-1 in contrast. The maximum wind speed reaching 60.0 m·s-1 is recorded during Typhoon Iris (No. 5908). Different typhoons exhibit significant variations in wind, rain, and comprehensive hazard indices. Super Typhoon Meranti (No. 1614) ranks the highest in comprehensive risk. Typhoon Doksuri (No. 2305) and Typhoon Haikui (No. 2311) also cause severe disasters. Doksuri poses high wind and rain risks, while Haikui primarily presents a high rain risk, characterised by a typical non-uniform spatial distribution. These findings provide a scientific basis for enhancing Xiamen’s resilience to extreme weather and climate-related disasters, as well as for informing urban planning, production activities, and ensuring public safety.

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羅冠婷,何芬,池艷珍,王彥明,蘇楚涵.1953—2023年登陸和影響廈門臺風特征及危險性分析[J].氣象科技,2025,53(3):362~377

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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-10
  • 定稿日期:2024-12-13
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-06-27
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