1979—2023年廣西全州地區褐飛虱物候期變化特點及其對氣候變化的響應
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廣西自然科學基金項目(2023GXNSFAA026515)資助


Characteristics of Phenological Changes of Nilaparvata Lugens and Its Response to Climate Change in Quanzhou, Guangxi from 1979 to 2023
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    摘要:

    基于廣西全州地區1979—2023年褐飛虱資料及溫度、降水要素,利用Sen’s斜率、小波分析、曼-肯德爾(M-K)趨勢及突變檢驗等方法,分析該地區45 a來褐飛虱物候期的變化特征及對氣候變化的響應。結果顯示:①始見期以0.43 d·a-1p<0.05)呈提前趨勢,終見期及停留時間分別以0.42 d·a-1、0.85 d·a-1p<0.01)呈推遲或延長趨勢,各物候期未發生變異,隨時間變化穩定。②始見期、終見期及停留時間分別于2009年、2003年及2007年發生突變,并存在多個周期變化特征,始見期變化的第一主周期為26 a,而終見期與停留時間的第一主周期為28 a。③春、夏、秋季平均氣溫增溫極顯著,并分別于2001年、2021年及2012年發生突變。季節性降水年際波動大,變化趨勢不明顯。④始見期對春季溫度響應顯著,暖春會使始見期提前;終見期與秋季溫度要素呈正相關,暖秋會使褐飛虱終見期推遲;暖春及暖秋都會延長褐飛虱的停留時間。始見期與3月降水量呈負相關;終見期與11月降水量及日數則呈正相關。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens (Stal)) and meteorological factors including temperature and precipitation in the Quanzhou region of Guangxi Province from 1979 to 2023, this study utilises Sen's slope, wavelet analysis, M-K trend, and mutation testing to analyse variation characteristics of the Nilaparvata lugens's phenological periods and its response to climate change in this region over the past 45 years. The results show that the initial appearance date shows an early trend at a rate of 0.43 days per year (p<0.05), and the final disappearance date and residence time show a delayed or prolonged trend at rates of 0.42 days per year and 0.85 days per year (p<0.01) respectively. No variation occurs in the phenological periods, and they remain relatively stable over time. The initial appearance date, final disappearance date, and duration of stay undergo mutations in 2009, 2003, and 2007, respectively. There are also multiple periodic variation characteristics. The first main period of the initial appearance date is 26 years, while the first main period of the final disappearance date and duration of stay is 28 years. The average temperatures in spring, summer, and autumn have increased extremely significantly and undergo mutations in 2001, 2021, and 2012, respectively. Seasonal precipitation has large inter-annual fluctuation and the change trend is not obvious. The significant increase in temperature in different seasons has a profound impact on the ecological environment. The large fluctuations in seasonal precipitation make the water environment more variable, which in turn affects the living conditions of the brown planthopper. Although the trend of precipitation change is not clear, its inter-annual variability still poses challenges to the adaptation of the brown planthopper. The initial appearance date has a highly significant response to spring temperature, and a warm spring can lead to an earlier initial appearance date. The final disappearance date is positively correlated with the autumn temperature element, and a warm autumn will make the final disappearance date of brown planthoppers later. Warm spring and warm autumn both prolong the staying time of brown planthoppers. The initial appearance date is negatively correlated with the precipitation in March, and the final disappearance date is positively correlated with the precipitation and the number of days in November. This shows that temperature and precipitation in specific seasons have specific regulatory effects on the phenological period of brown planthoppers. The relationship between temperature and phenological period reflects the direct impact of thermal conditions on the growth and development rhythm of brown planthoppers. The correlation between precipitation and phenological period indicates that water availability also plays an important role in determining the key life cycle nodes of brown planthoppers.

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唐廣田,黃祎萱,鄒麗霞,李冰蘭,黃國靚,莫雁雯.1979—2023年廣西全州地區褐飛虱物候期變化特點及其對氣候變化的響應[J].氣象科技,2025,53(2):271~284

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-14
  • 定稿日期:2024-11-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-04-21
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