山西地區降水性層狀云中過冷水的分布特征及診斷預報
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中央引導地方科技發展資金項目(YDZJSX2021B017)、山西省氣象局面上項目(SXKMSDW20246766)、中國氣象局創新發展專項(CXFZ2024J029、CXFZ2025Q015)、中國氣象局〖CD*2〗成都信息工程大學人工影響天氣聯合研究中心2024年開放課題(2024GDRY010)資助


Distribution Characteristics and Forecast Diagnosis of Supercooled Water in Precipitating Stratiform Clouds in Shanxi Province
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    摘要:

    過冷水是層狀云人工增雨潛力的重要判定指標,利用2017—2022年共32架次的飛機探測資料,統計研究不同大氣環境下過冷水的分布特征,并基于這些特征探索山西地區云中過冷水含量的診斷預報方法。結果表明:①過冷水含量大部分值集中在0.06~0.22 g·m-3,平均值為0.18 g·m-3,其概率密度分布為明顯的單峰正偏態分布,隨著過冷水含量的增加累積分布函數的增長速率不斷減小。②過冷水區主要出現在3589~4667 m,距0 ℃層大約1011~2316 m,溫度區間是-8.52~-3.52 ℃,濕度在86.68%~100%范圍內,且過冷水區以上升氣流為主,這些區域內過冷水含量也都相對較大。③過冷水含量隨著距0 ℃層高度的減小、溫度的增加、濕度的增大以及云中上升氣流的增強,呈現增長的趨勢。④利用多項式擬合的方法獲得了過冷水含量與溫度、濕度、距0 ℃層高度以及垂直風速的關系,對比顯示,過冷水含量較小時反演結果偏大,而過冷水含量較大時反演結果偏小,但是從兩者的整體分布上來看,存在明顯的正相關。個例反演結果顯示預報過冷水區域的準確率均大于65%,預報值略大于觀測值。這一診斷預報過冷水的方法一定程度可以定性的判斷某些條件下過冷水含量的大小,尋找過冷水及豐沛區域,為科學開展人工影響天氣作業提供指導。

    Abstract:

    Supercooled water is a crucial parameter for assessing the potential for weather modification in stratiform clouds. Utilising data from 32 aircrafts detected by the Airborne Meteorological Detection Device from 2017 to 2022, we conduct a statistical analysis of the altitude characteristics where supercooled water is present, along with temperature, humidity, vertical wind speed, and other atmospheric parameters. We also examine the variation of supercooled water content in relation to these environmental factors. Based on these findings, we develop a diagnostic forecasting method for supercooled water content in clouds over the Shanxi region. The study reveals the following insights: (1) The supercooled water content obtained by the Airborne Meteorological Detection Device shows good agreement with the liquid water content detected by the Cloud Particle Probe (when the temperature is below 0 ℃, the liquid water content detected by the CDP is the supercooled water content), which indicates that both instruments are better at detecting the supercooled water content in the cloud. (2) The supercooled water content predominantly ranges from 0.06 to 0.22 g·m-3, with an average value of 0.18 g·m-3. Its probability density function (PDF) exhibits a distinct single-peaked normal skewed distribution, and the cumulative distribution function (CDF) growth rate decreases as the supercooled water content increases. (3) The supercooled water region is predominantly found between 3589 and 4667 metres, approximately 1011 to 2316 metres above the 0 ℃ isotherm. The temperature range is from -8.52 ℃ to -3.52 ℃, humidity levels vary between 86.68% and 100%, and the supercooled water area is predominantly influenced by updrafts. (4) The supercooled water content tends to increase with decreasing altitude from the 0 ℃ isotherm, rising temperature, increasing relative humidity, and stronger updrafts within the clouds. (5) The relationships between the content of supercooled water and various factors such as temperature, relative humidity, altitude above the 0 ℃ isotherm, and vertical wind speed are determined through polynomial fitting. The analysis reveals that the inversion magnitude is substantial when the supercooled water content is low, and conversely, it is minimal when the content is high. However, when considering the overall distribution, there is a distinct positive correlation between the two variables. The retrieval results for six cases outside the statistical sample suggest that some supercooled water is also forecasted during periods when it is actually detected, with the trends of the two being largely consistent and accuracies exceeding 65%. However, the forecasted values are slightly higher than the observed values. This diagnostic method for forecasting supercooled water can, to a certain extent, qualitatively assess the magnitude of supercooled water content under specific conditions, locate areas rich in supercooled water, and offer guidance for the scientific advancement of artificial weather modification operations.

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楊曉,孫鴻娉,李培仁,楊俊梅,郝奎.山西地區降水性層狀云中過冷水的分布特征及診斷預報[J].氣象科技,2025,53(2):247~258

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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-20
  • 定稿日期:2024-11-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-04-21
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