一次漏報極端雷暴大風特征及原因多源觀測資料綜合分析
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災害天氣國家重點實驗室開放課題(2023LASW-B02)、河北省氣象局項目(23ky14、23zc16)、河北省氣象局暴雨強對流野外觀測項目、衡水市氣象局短臨預報技術研究創新團隊項目、石家莊市科技計劃項目(2414909703)、中國氣象局創新發展專項(CXFZ2024J025)資助


Analysis of Characteristics and Cause of a Missing-Forecast Extreme Thunderstorm Gale Weather Process Based on Multi-source Observation Data
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    摘要:

    2023年7月24日河北中部出現一次雷暴大風強對流天氣過程,過程極端性強,6個國家站的極大風速突破歷史極值或位居歷史前兩名,其中元氏最大達30.6 m/s。此過程大尺度天氣背景為高空弱西北氣流,天氣系統不明顯,導致中、短期天氣預報出現漏報。利用ERA5再分析、雙偏振天氣雷達、風廓線雷達、L波段探空和分鐘級地面觀測等多源高分辨率觀測資料,對此次極端雷暴大風過程的演變特征及其成因進行分析,結果表明:①雷暴大風過程屬于高空干冷平流弱強迫型,存在低層暖、高空弱冷的不穩定大氣層結,對流有效位能1544.8 J/kg,沙氏指數-4.31 ℃,850 hPa與500 hPa溫度差超30 ℃,垂直風切變中等略偏弱。②單峰值型和雙峰值型前階段大風具有突發性強、瞬時風速大、持續時間短等特征,對應雷達回波分為風暴單體、弓形回波、陣風鋒3類,表現為差分反射率因子(ZDR)柱、差分相移率(KDP)柱、相關系數(CC)小值和17 m/s以上的大風速核、速度模糊和中層徑向輻合等特征;地面氣象要素表現為中心氣壓≥1006 hPa的雷暴高壓和1 h變溫≤-3.5 ℃的地面冷池,對應氣壓陡升、氣溫驟降、零度層高度谷值和弱降水。雙峰值型后階段大風強度弱、影響范圍小且持續時間短,不伴有降水或僅有微弱降水,對應弱雷達回波型,是由主體雷達回波后的再生弱回波和冷池密度流共同造成的。③極端大風也與觀測站遷站有一定關系。

    Abstract:

    There was an extreme thunderstorm gale weather event that occurred in central Hebei Province on 24 July 2023, which was missed in forecasting. The maximum wind speed at 6 national observation stations broke the record for the maximum value or ranked in the top two, with the maximum wind speed being 30.6 m/s, which appeared at the Yuanshi station. The large-scale weather background of this event was the weak northwest wind at the upper air weather chart, and the weather system was not obvious, which led to the failure of forecasting the thunderstorm gale disaster in the middle and short-term weather forecast. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, dual-polarisation weather radar, wind profile radar, L-band radiosonde, minute-level ground encryption observation station data, and other multi-source high spatial and temporal resolution observation data, the evolution characteristics and causes of the extreme thunderstorm gale weather event are analysed. The results show that: (1) The process of thunderstorm wind belonged to the high-altitude dry and cold advection weak forcing type, and there was an unstable atmospheric junction of low-level warm and upper-altitude weak cold. The CAPE value was 1544.8 J/kg, SI was -4.31 ℃, and the temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa exceeded 30 ℃, with the vertical wind shears of 0-3 km and 0-6 km being moderate-to-slightly weak. (2) The wind speed of the single-peak and the first stage of the double-peak were characterised by strong sudden onset, large instantaneous wind speed, and short duration. The corresponding radar echoes of the convection system included three categories: storm cells, bow echoes, and gust front, which were characterised by ZDR column, KDP column, low CC value, large wind core above 17 m/s, velocity ambiguity, and radial convergence of 3-8 km in the middle layer. The surface meteorological elements were thunderstorm high pressure with centre pressure above 1006 hPa and surface cold pool with temperature variations of one hour less than -3.5 ℃, corresponding to the steep rise of pressure, the sudden drop of temperature, the valley value of zero layer height, and weak precipitation. Compared with the first stage, the wind in the second stage of the double-peak type was significantly weaker, with a smaller impact range and a short duration, accompanied by no precipitation or only weak precipitation, corresponding to the weak radar echo type, which was caused by the regenerative weak echo after the main radar echo and the cold pool density current. (3) Extreme winds were also related to the new relocation station with few obstacles.

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李國翠,吳翀,鈐偉妙,段宇輝,曹越.一次漏報極端雷暴大風特征及原因多源觀測資料綜合分析[J].氣象科技,2025,53(2):222~234

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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-04
  • 定稿日期:2024-12-13
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-04-21
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