考慮數據均一性和自相關的中國極端氣溫變化趨勢研究
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Study on Trends of Extreme Temperature in China Considering Data Homogenization and Autocorrelation
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    摘要:

    本文利用中國目前空間覆蓋度最高的站點均一化逐日氣溫數據集,考慮時間序列自相關對長期趨勢分析的影響,研究了1961—2021年中國極端氣溫的趨勢變化特征。結果表明,中國區域平均而言,全年暖夜(冷夜)數、暖日(冷日)數的增加(減?。┶厔莘謩e為10.3(-7.8)、5.9(-3.6)d/10a,極冷夜、極暖夜、極冷日、極暖日的增溫速度分別為0.52、0.30、0.30、0.21 ℃/10a,與未考慮自相關的趨勢差值百分比均低于5%;對于單站而言,時間序列自相關對趨勢大小的影響,大部分臺站都在10%以內,但也有部分臺站超過了50%。極端氣溫與平均氣溫的變化存在諸多不同,例如,雖然中國區域平均最低氣溫、最高氣溫的夏季升溫趨勢最弱,但是暖夜數、暖日數的夏季增加趨勢卻最強,冬季增加趨勢反而最弱。空間覆蓋度高的均一化資料揭示出中國極端氣溫變化更多的細節特征,例如,極暖日在長江、三角洲、珠江三角洲、京津冀、成渝等城市群所在的區域內增溫趨勢尤其顯著,是否與城市化發展有關還有待進一步研究。

    Abstract:

    China frequently experiences extreme temperature events, which often have severe impacts on social production and daily life. Therefore, it is of great importance to study the long-term trends of extreme temperature changes. The homogenisation of the observation dataset is crucial for detecting temperature change trends. In the meantime, whether to consider time series autocorrelation can also affect the detection results. Failure to consider the homogenisation of the temperature dataset or the autocorrelation of the temperature time series brings about uncertainty in research conclusions. In addition, the higher the spatial coverage of observation sites, the more advantageous it is to reveal spatial differences in change characteristics. This study analyses the trends of extreme temperature changes in China during the period of 1961-2021 using a homogenised daily station temperature dataset with the most spatial coverage currently, while taking into account the impacts of time series autocorrelation. For China as a whole, the annual warm nights (days), where daily minimum (maximum) temperature is above its 90th percentile, have an increasing trend of 10.3 (5.9) d/10a, while the annual cold nights (days), where daily minimum (maximum) temperature is below its 10th percentile, have a decreasing trend of -7.8 (-3.6) d/10a on space average, respectively. The warming rates of the annual coldest night (TNn), warming night (TNx), coldest day (TXn), and warmest day (TXx) are 0.52, 0.30, 0.30, and 0.21 ℃/10a on space average, respectively. For the regional average time series of extreme temperature in China, the percentage differences between the original trend and the decorrelation trend are all less than 5%. For a single station, the impact of time series autocorrelation on the magnitude of long-term linear trend is less than 10% for most stations, but there are also some stations with impacts exceeding 50%. There are great differences between extreme temperature changes and average temperature changes. For example, although the summer warming trend is the weakest in terms of the regional average minimum and maximum temperatures in China, the increasing trend of the regional average warm nights and warm days is the strongest during summer, while the increasing trend is the weakest during winter. With higher spatial coverage of station datasets, this study reveals more details of extreme temperature changes in China. For example, TXx shows an especially pronounced warming trend in urban agglomerations such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Chengdu-Chongqing. Further research is needed to determine whether this is related to urbanisation.

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胡宜昌.考慮數據均一性和自相關的中國極端氣溫變化趨勢研究[J].氣象科技,2025,53(2):211~221

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-18
  • 定稿日期:2024-12-13
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-04-21
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