基于CRITIC-AHP的鄭州市內澇災害風險評估
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河南省科技研發計劃聯合基金項目(222103810095)和開封市重點(重大)科技計劃項目(19ZD012)資助


Risk Assessment of Urban Waterlogging Disasters in Zhengzhou Based on CRITIC-AHP
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    摘要:

    鄭州市作為中原大城市,城市內澇時有發生,科學客觀評估城市內澇災害風險極為重要。本文根據城市內澇致災機理,基于地形、近年降水和最新的經濟發展指標等相關數據,應用CRITIC(Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation)客觀權重和AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)層次法相結合的方法,開展鄭州市中心城區的暴雨內澇風險評估。結果表明:鄭州市中心城區,城市內澇災害高風險和次高風險主要分布在二七區、管城區西北部和東部、金水區南部;各區平均致災風險指數最大值為二七區,整體達到次高風險,管城區與金水區平均風險達到中風險。利用2016—2022年暴雨內澇過程對評估結果進行檢驗,積水點位于高風險和次高風險區域的占44.2%,位于中級以上風險區域的共占比77.3%;通過個例分析發現,大部分積水過程的積水點與城市內澇綜合風險中高級區域對應較好。評價結果能夠反映出鄭州市中心城區的內澇災害風險分布情況,特別是二七區、管城區西北部和金水南部,積水點集中且密度最大,與內澇災害次高以上風險高度一致,可為城市防洪策略、災害風險管理等實踐提供參考。

    Abstract:

    Zhengzhou, a pivotal city in the Central Plains region, witnesses rapid urban development, accompanied by swift transformations in its urban underlying surfaces, exposure levels, and spatial distribution of precipitation patterns. As a result, urban waterlogging incidents become a frequent occurrence, posing significant challenges to the city’s resilience. Recognising this, it becomes imperative to conduct a scientific and objective assessment of the risk of urban waterlogging disasters. This assessment seeks to establish a robust scientific basis and foundation that can inform urban flood control strategies, guide disaster risk management practices, and facilitate the planning and development of sponge city initiatives in Zhengzhou. To comprehensively evaluate the risk of urban waterlogging in Zhengzhou’s central urban area, this study adopts a method that integrates the CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) objective weighting technique with the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). This combined approach leverages the mechanism of urban waterlogging disasters and incorporates relevant data such as terrain features, precipitation patterns in recent years, and the latest economic development indicators. By applying this rigorous method, the study aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the risk of rainstorm waterlogging in the study area. The results show that the high and secondary high-risk areas of urban waterlogging disasters in Zhengzhou’s central urban area are primarily concentrated in Erqi District, the northwest and eastern regions of Guancheng District, and the southern part of Jinshui District. Notably, Erqi District exhibits the highest average disaster-causing risk index among all districts, reaching the level of secondary high risk. In contrast, Guancheng District and Jinshui District exhibit an average risk level that is moderate. To validate the robustness of the assessment results, major waterlogging events in recent years are analysed for verification. The analysis demonstrates that 44.2% of the waterlogging points are located within the high and secondary high-risk areas of waterlogging, while 77.3% are situated in areas with risks above the moderate level. Furthermore, through detailed case analysis, it is observed that the majority of waterlogging points during the waterlogging process align closely with the moderate and high-risk areas of urban waterlogging, indicating a high degree of accuracy and reliability in the assessment method. The evaluation results presented in this study effectively reflect the distribution of waterlogging disaster risks in Zhengzhou’s central urban area. Specifically, in Erqi District, the northwest of Guancheng District, and the south of Jinshui District, where waterlogging points are concentrated and exhibit the highest density, the risk levels are consistent with the secondary high risk and above of waterlogging disasters. This strong correlation between the assessment results and actual waterlogging incidents underscores the reliability and validity of the assessment method used in this study. Consequently, these findings can provide valuable insights and guidance for urban flood control strategies, disaster risk management practices, and the planning and development of sponge city initiatives in Zhengzhou.

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喻謙花,張姵冉,薛豐昌,姜東東,冀翠華.基于CRITIC-AHP的鄭州市內澇災害風險評估[J].氣象科技,2025,53(1):124~134

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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-16
  • 定稿日期:2024-10-08
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-02-27
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