一次對流云火箭防雹作業多源雷達探測效果分析
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中國氣象局-成都信息工程大學人工影響天氣聯合研究中心開放課題項目“昆明市晝(夜)間冰雹天氣過程的結構特征及熱(動)力條件分析”(2023GDRY015)、“多種客觀產品在昆明人工防雹作業中的應用研究”(2023GDRY014)共同資助


Multi-Source Radar Detection Analysis of Effectiveness of a Hail Suppression of Convective Clouds by Rockets
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    摘要:

    本文應用昆明市2023年8月10日人工防雹多源雷達探測資料,從雷達回波形態、雷達參量時序演變、理論用彈量估算等方面分析了火箭彈體源和線源播撒催化效果差異。結果表明:C波段雷達顯示混合播撒后作業區雷達反射率因子減小、回波頂高下降,而體源播撒表現為強回波衰減特點。X波段雙偏振雷達顯示作業區回波頂高發展與垂直液態水含量波動一致,可用于作業時機選擇;火箭彈體源播撒作業高度較低,但爆炸產生動力效果有利于催化劑擴散過程,短期內最大回波強度、強中心高度均下降,雙偏振量顯示差分反射率因子降低,差分相位移率低值區擴散;火箭彈線源播撒作業高度可達零度層,較長催化過程有助于回波頂高和垂直液態水含量持續下降,零滯后相關系數增大至0.9以上。單一線源或體源播撒效果差,二者相結合能夠加強催化效果。理論計算表明,在不考慮云體發展狀況、用彈量等因素前提下,核化率是影響火箭彈理論用彈量的關鍵,BL-1A型線源播撒火箭彈較JFJ-1A體源播撒火箭彈更容易達到過量催化,實際作業中單一體源播撒可能會因炸點偏離、作業高度有限影響催化效果。

    Abstract:

    Based on multi-source radar detection data from an artificial hail suppression operation in Kunming City on 10 August 2023, this study analyzes the differences in catalytic effects between rocket-based spatial and linear seeding modes from the perspectives of radar echo morphology, temporal evolution of radar parameters, and theoretical estimation of rocket consumption. The results indicate that after mixed seeding, C-band radar data showed a decrease in radar reflectivity and a reduction in echo top height within the operation area, while spatial seeding was characterised by intensive echo attenuation. X-band dual-polarisation radar revealed that the echo top height correlated with fluctuations in vertically integrated liquid water content, providing valuable insights for determining the optimal timing of operations. Rocket-based spatial seeding was conducted at lower altitudes, but the explosive power enhanced the diffusion of the catalyst, resulting in a short-term decrease in maximum echo intensity and height, while dual-polarisation measurements showed a reduction in the differential reflectivity factor and an expansion of the low differential phase shift rate region. In contrast, rocket linear seeding reached the 0 ℃ isotherm height, and the longer catalytic process contributed to a sustained decrease in echo top height and vertically integrated liquid water content, with the zero-lag correlation coefficient increasing to above 0.9. The individual effects of either linear or spatial seeding were limited, while a combination of both seeding methods enhanced the overall catalytic effect. Theoretical calculations suggested that the nucleation rate was the primary factor influencing the theoretical consumption of rockets without considering factors such as cloud development and ammunition consumption. The BL-1A linear seeding rocket was more likely to achieve excess catalysis than the JFJ-1A spatial seeding rocket. In practice, the catalytic efficiency of single spatial seeding might have been compromised due to deviations in explosion points and limitations in catalytic altitude.

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馮亮亮,劉雨潤,張婧琦,方夏馨.一次對流云火箭防雹作業多源雷達探測效果分析[J].氣象科技,2025,53(1):96~111

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-26
  • 定稿日期:2024-10-17
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-02-27
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