1970—2019年內蒙古巴彥淖爾市冰雹變化特征
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國家自然科學基金重點項目(42030604),西北區域人工影響天氣能力建設項目(ZQC-R18217/RYSY201906),內蒙古自治區科技計劃項目(2022YFSH0009),內蒙古氣象局科技創新項目(nmqxkjcx202335,nmqxkjcx202468)資助


Characteristics of Hail Change in Bayannur, Inner Mongolia from 1970 to 2019
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    摘要:

    利用內蒙古巴彥淖爾市1970—2019年9個基本氣象觀測站和87個防雹作業點冰雹觀測資料,應用統計學方法,分析了巴彥淖爾市冰雹年際變化、月變化、日變化、持續時間及空間分布特征。結果表明:①近50年巴彥淖爾市年均冰雹日為16.4 d,20世紀80年代最高22.8 d,21世紀以后下降趨勢顯著,為10 d左右;冰雹季節性明顯,夏季出現冰雹概率為76.44%,7月降雹概率最大;冰雹主要出現在12:00—20:00(占83.38%),其中15:00—16:00降雹概率最大(17.01%)。②冰雹持續時間在5 min內占比最大(50.20%);冰雹年均持續時間呈上升趨勢;7月冰雹持續時間最長,平均為7.09 min。③冰雹空間分布呈南多北少特征,最多282 d(烏拉特前旗),最少80 d(烏拉特后旗),以鄉鎮為單位在陰山山脈南側自西向東有4個大于100 d的降雹中心。結合冰雹云移動路徑,應在巴彥淖爾市北部海流圖、烏加河鎮等地增設防雹作業點,加大人工防雹作業力度,減少雹災損失。

    Abstract:

    By making use of the hail observation data from 9 fundamental meteorological observation stations and 87 hail suppression operation points in Bayannur City, Inner Mongolia throughout the period spanning from 1970 to 2019, and by means of the application of statistical methods, a meticulous and extensive analysis is carried out on the diverse characteristics of interannual variations, monthly variations, diurnal variations, durations, and spatial distribution of hail in Bayannur City. The resultant findings disclose that: (1) Over the course of the past 50 years, the average annual number of hail days in Bayannur City amounts to 16.4 days. The peak value is an impressive 22.8 days in the 1980s. However, a strikingly pronounced and significant downward trend is readily observable since the dawn of the 21st century, approximately reaching around 10 days. Hail manifests distinct and obvious seasonality. The probability of its occurrence in summer is a considerable 76.44%. Specifically, July witnesses the highest incidence of hailfall. Hail predominantly emerges within the timeframe of 12:00 to 20:00, accounting for a substantial 83.38%. Among these intervals, the highest probability of hailfall occurs precisely from 15:00 to 16:00, attaining an elevated 17.01%. (2) The proportion of hail durations within 5 minutes is the most prominent, constituting a significant 50.20%. The average annual duration of hail demonstrates a discernible upward trend. The duration of hail in July is the longest, with an average of 7.09 minutes. (3) The spatial distribution of hail is characterised by a higher frequency in the south and a relatively lower occurrence in the north. The maximum is 282 days in Urad Front Banner, while the minimum is 80 days in Urad Rear Banner. At the township level, there are 4 hailfall centres with more than 100 days from west to east on the south side of the Yinshan Mountains. In combination with the moving paths of hail clouds, it is of utmost importance to establish additional hail suppression operation points in areas such as Hailiutu and Wujiahe Town in the northern part of Bayannur City. This not only enhances the intensity of artificial hail suppression operations but also effectively minimises the losses caused by hail disasters. Such measures aim to provide more robust protection for agricultural production as well as people’s lives and property, thereby contributing to the stable and sustainable development of the region. It is expected that these efforts will lead to improved meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, and ultimately promote the harmonious coexistence between human beings and nature in this area.

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史金麗,蘇立娟,樊茹霞,許志麗,于水燕,衣娜娜,王龍.1970—2019年內蒙古巴彥淖爾市冰雹變化特征[J].氣象科技,2025,53(1):72~79

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-31
  • 定稿日期:2024-10-11
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-02-27
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