2023年西藏“8·24”強降水成因及中尺度特征分析
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第二次青藏高原科學考察研究項目(2019QKK010207-02)、中國氣象科學研究院青藏高原與極地氣象科學研究所開放課題、中國氣象局天氣預報復盤研究項目(FPZJ2023-126),西藏自治區科技廳研究項目“近50年西藏小時極端降水時空分布特征以及模擬預估”共同資助


Analysis of Causes and Mesoscale Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation in Tibet on 24 August 2023
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    摘要:

    利用地面自動站觀測資料、FY-4A衛星觀測資料、多普勒天氣雷達資料和ERA-5再分析資料,對發生于西藏2023年8月24—26日強降水的成因及中尺度特征進行分析。結果表明: 此次強降水過程具有持續時間長、累積雨量大、覆蓋范圍廣等特征;本次過程發生時南亞高壓呈帶狀分布,中心位置控制高原;切變線為此次強降水的關鍵影響系統,為強降水天氣提供必要的水汽輸送和中低層對流抬升運動的維持機制;地面輻合線為低層對流抬升提供了觸發機制,導致強降水天氣發生;低空西南急流的建立和加強,有利于將孟加拉灣上空的水汽輸送至高原,為強降水的維持提供充沛的水汽;深厚的濕層、低的抬升凝結高度和自由對流高度、弱的垂直風切變等環境條件對強對流天氣的發生具有較好的指示作用;強降水主要出現在積云回波中反射率因子大值區;強降水發生時回波強度達到50 dBz,50 dBz的回波位于3 km以內,并具有低質心特征,中低層速度圖上存在明顯的中尺度輻合區。

    Abstract:

    The causes and mesoscale characteristics of precipitation on 24-26 August 2023, are analysed using ground automatic station observation data, FY-4A satellite observation data, Doppler weather radar data, and ERA-5 reanalysis data. The results show that the heavy precipitation process had the characteristics of long duration, large cumulative rainfall, and wide coverage. During this process, the South Asian high was distributed in a belt-like manner, and the central position controlled the plateau. The shear line was the key influencing system of the heavy precipitation, which provided the necessary water vapour transport and the maintenance mechanism of the convective uplift movement in the middle and low layers for the heavy precipitation weather. The surface convergence line provided a trigger mechanism for the uplift of low-level convection, resulting in heavy precipitation. The establishment and strengthening of the low-level southwest jet stream were conducive to transporting water vapour over the Bay of Bengal to the plateau, providing abundant water vapour for the maintenance of heavy precipitation. Environmental conditions such as a deep wet layer, low LCL and LFC, and weak vertical wind shear had a good indicative effect on the occurrence of severe convective weather. Heavy precipitation mainly occurred in the area with a large reflectance factor in cumulus echoes. When heavy precipitation occurred, the echo intensity reached 50 dBz, and the echo of 50 dBz was located within 3 km and had the characteristics of a low centroid, and there was an obvious mesoscale convergence zone on the middle and low layer velocity map.

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余燕群,旦增冉珍,易簡捷,貢嘎,奚鳳.2023年西藏“8·24”強降水成因及中尺度特征分析[J].氣象科技,2025,53(1):61~71

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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-27
  • 定稿日期:2024-10-17
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-02-27
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