CMA-MESO 3 km模式10 m風預報產品在山西區域的定量檢驗及客觀訂正
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中國氣象局創新發展專項(CSFZ2023J019)、中國氣象局復盤總結專項(FPZJ2024-015)、山西省氣象局揭榜掛帥科技項目(SXKJBGS202314)共同資助


Quantitative Test and Objective Correction of CMA-MESO 3 km Model 10 m Wind Forecast Products in Shanxi Region
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    摘要:

    風場預報是智能網格預報的重要支撐,提高風場預報準確率,能夠為風能預報提供核心保障。在綜合評估2023年汛期CMA-MESO 3 km(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model at 3 km resolution)模式在山西逐小時10 m風預報能力的基礎上,基于自適應Kalman濾波方法,開展針對緯向風(U)、經向風(V)的客觀訂正,以期建立適應山西復雜地形特征的客觀預報方案,促進國產模式本地化業務應用。結果表明:①全風速預報偏大,預報誤差呈“單峰型”日變化,峰值出現在18:00—20:00,正偏差主要位于忻定和太原盆地以及山西南部。② U、V預報誤差與預報值呈顯著正相關,需考慮不同強度預報風速誤差隨時效變化的特征,避免訂正不足或過訂正。③ Kalman濾波方案(KM)訂正幅度小且不穩定,訂正后均方根誤差RMSE削減不足6%,準確率提升不足2%。④基于動態分級的改進方案(CBKM)突破KM訂正瓶頸,更準確地估計系統誤差并有效訂正,更好再現不同地區風速日變化,平均誤差ME趨近0,RMSE削減32.8%,風向、風速預報準確率分別提升8.29%、7.92%,峰值時刻訂正率達83.49%。

    Abstract:

    Wind forecasting is an important support for intelligent grid prediction data. Improving the accuracy of wind forecasting provides the core guarantee for wind energy and weather forecasting. Based on a comprehensive assessment of hourly 10 m wind forecasting capabilities of CMA-MESO 3 km (China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model at 3 km resolution) during the flooding season of 2023 in the Shanxi region, we conduct objective correction experiments based on regional and temporal differences in forecast effect, with a focus on improving the plan to address the differences in wind speed forecasting for different intensities. Objective correction of zonal wind (U) and meridional wind (V) components is carried out by applying an adaptive Kalman filtering scheme, and the correction results are also analysed in detail. The results show that: (1) The forecast errors of wind speed and wind direction occur clearly with a characteristic of diurnal variation, with one peak occurring during 18:00-20:00. Wind speed with positive forecast errors is mainly located in Xinding Basin, Taiyuan Basin, and southwest Shanxi. (2) The forecast errors of U and V (components of wind) are positively correlated with the forecast values. It is necessary to consider the temporal variation characteristics of the error in predicting wind speeds with different intensities, in order to avoid insufficient or excessive correction. (3) The correction of Kalman filtering (KM) is small and unstable, with the revised RMSE reduced by less than 6% and accuracy improved by less than 2%. (4) CBKM (Classification-based Kalman filtering method) based on dynamic classification improvement breaks the bottleneck of KM. Systematic errors are more accurately estimated and effectively corrected by CBKM. The diurnal variation characteristics of wind speed in different regions are reproduced better, and the forecast accuracy of wind direction and wind speed is improved by 8.29% and 7.92% respectively. ME tends to zero, RMSE has been slashed by 32.8%, and the correction rate of peak time is 83.49%. The forecasting capability of CMA-MESO 3 km 10 m wind is systematically evaluated to enhance objective understanding. We evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of forecast errors, and an objective correction scheme of 10 m wind adapted to the regional characteristics of Shanxi is established. Through the above-mentioned work, we promote the application of domestic numerical model forecasting products in local refined forecasting services and provide a reference for further development of wind power forecasting services.

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苗青,董春卿,孫穎姝,畢玉婷. CMA-MESO 3 km模式10 m風預報產品在山西區域的定量檢驗及客觀訂正[J].氣象科技,2025,53(1):22~34

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-19
  • 定稿日期:2024-10-14
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  • 在線發布日期: 2025-02-27
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