中國臺風災害直接經濟損失的主導影響因子評估與識別
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中國氣象局氣象發展與規劃院重點研究項目(ZDXM2023003)資助


Identification of Dominant Impact Factors of Typhoon Disaster Economic Losses in China
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    摘要:

    基于2004—2021年125個中國臺風災情資料以及地面氣象站風雨觀測數據和社會經濟統計數據,綜合考慮致災因子、承災體和防災減災能力構建臺風災害直接經濟損失評估模型,并在此基礎上定量化研究影響中國臺風災害直接經濟損失的主導因子。結果表明:在2004—2021年期間,中國臺風定基直接經濟損失和臺風風雨強度均呈現下降趨勢。以2012年(臺風路徑集合預報實時訂正技術啟用年)為界,臺風大風指數是2004—2011年期間對臺風災害經濟損失貢獻量最大的影響因子,但在2012年之后,卻是貢獻量最小的因子;臺風降雨指數、地區GDP(Gross Domestic Product)總和、臺風強度預報誤差和排水管道密度因子對臺風災害經濟損失的貢獻在2012年之后均明顯增加,并且臺風強度預報誤差的降低和排水管道密度的顯著增加是2012—2021年期間臺風災害經濟損失下降的主導要素。本研究發現我國臺風災害經濟損失的主導影響因子在不同研究時段內存在差異,提高臺風強度預報水平和改善排水設施等防災減災能力可有效降低臺風災害經濟損失。

    Abstract:

    Based on comprehensive data spanning from 2004 to 2021, encompassing 125 typhoon disaster events within China, and in conjunction with wind and rain observation data collected from ground meteorological stations as well as synchronous social and economic statistical data, this study develops a robust model for assessing the direct economic losses of typhoon disasters. This model takes into account causative factors, receptor characteristics, and disaster prevention and reduction capacity. On the basis of this model, we design a quantitative analysis method to conduct an in-depth exploration and quantitative analysis of the dominant factors influencing the change in direct economic losses caused by typhoon disasters in China. The research findings indicate that during the observation period from 2004 to 2021, overall direct economic losses resulting from typhoon disasters in China exhibit a significant year-on-year decreasing trend. Simultaneously, there are discernible signs of weakening in the wind and rain intensity associated with these typhoons in China. Taking 2012 as the cut-off point (the year when real-time correction technology for ensemble forecast of typhoon paths is officially put into use), our study finds that prior to this year, the typhoon wind index is identified as the most significant factor contributing to economic losses from these disasters during the observation period from 2004 to 2021; however, its influence decreases significantly after 2012, becoming the smallest contributing factor to the direct economic losses of typhoon disasters during the observation period from 2012 to 2021. Compared with the observation period from 2004 to 2011, there is a notable increase in contributions to the direct economic losses of typhoon disasters in China from factors related to typhoons after 2012, such as the typhoon rain index, regional GDP, typhoon intensity forecast error, and drainage pipe density factor. Particularly noteworthy is our identification of improved accuracy in forecasting typhoon intensity along with substantial increases during the observation period from 2012 to 2021 regarding drainage pipe density being the dominant impact factor driving down direct economic losses resulting from typhoon-related disasters. This study not only reveals differences over different research periods regarding dominant influencing factors on direct economic losses caused by Chinese typhoon disasters but also emphasises strengthening development and application of technologies for forecasting typhoons alongside improving infrastructure like drainage systems can effectively reduce their impact on society’s economy. These findings provide crucial references for formulating more scientific and efficient strategies aimed at addressing typhoon-related disasters.

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徐金勤,申丹娜,王皘,孟明明.中國臺風災害直接經濟損失的主導影響因子評估與識別[J].氣象科技,2024,52(6):869~878

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-01
  • 定稿日期:2024-08-14
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-12-25
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