2010—2019年中國閃電活動及其環境表征物理量分析研究
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國家自然科學基金聯合基金(U2142202、U2342204)、國家重點研發計劃(2022YFC3004104)、中國氣象局重點創新團隊(CMA2022ZD07)共同資助


A Study on Lightning Activities and Environmental Physical Characteristics in China from 2010 to 2019
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    摘要:

    本文利用2010—2019年中國ADTD(Advanced TOA and Direction system)型閃電定位儀閃電監測數據和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)再分析資料,在分析閃電活動特征的基礎上,結合TS評分、預報偏差等天氣學檢驗指標,研究中國及不同區域閃電的環境條件物理量特征。閃電活動特征顯示,閃電分布呈“南多北少”的形勢,華南閃電密度最大,其次為江南東部和西南地區東部;在頻數年變化上,除6月為華南閃電高發月外,全國及大部分地區8月閃電最多;日變化上,午后地閃電活動最為集中,16:00為峰值。環境條件分析表明,從全國來看,熱力相關物理量對閃電發生指示意義最好,其次為水汽物理量,動力相關表征量的指示作用不明顯。其中,K指數為全國范圍的最佳指數,其最優閾值為37 ℃,同時發現低層水汽條件較好的區域對于K指數敏感性更高,其閾值也相對較高,比如華北、長江流域、華南地區。而對于中高緯度區域,大氣層結不穩定對于閃電發生更敏感,因此最優抬升指數和抬升指數等指數的表現更好。水汽條件為閃電發生的必要因素,但水汽條件對閃電的指示意義不可單獨用作閃電預報的依據,應結合大氣環流和其他環境場特征來確定。相關結果為認識和預報全國和不同地區的閃電活動提供了客觀參考。

    Abstract:

    Based on the lightning monitoring data from the Chinese ADTD (Advanced TOA and Direction system) lightning locator network and the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data from 2010 to 2019, this analysis combines weather verification indicators such as TS scores and forecast deviations to provide the physical characteristics of environmental conditions related to lightning in different regions in China. The characteristics of lightning activity show a pattern of more lightning in the south and less in the north, with the highest lightning density in South China, followed by the eastern parts of Jiangnan and the eastern regions of Southwest China. Regarding monthly frequency variations, except for June, which sees a higher occurrence of lightning in South China, August records the highest lightning frequency nationwide and in most regions. In terms of diurnal variation, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning activity is most concentrated in the afternoon, with the daily peak at 16:00. The analysis of environmental conditions indicates that thermal environmental characteristics significantly indicate lightning occurrence, and thermal-related physical quantities have the best indicative significance for lightning occurrence, followed by water vapour physical quantities. The indicative role of dynamic-related characteristic quantities is not significant. Among them, the K index is the best index nationwide, with an optimal threshold of 37 ℃. For different regions, there are significant differences in the conditions of low-level water vapour, mid-level water vapour saturation, cold air intensity, and temperature difference between high and low levels. Comprehensive statistics show that regions with better low-level water vapour conditions are more sensitive to the K index and have relatively higher thresholds, such as northern China, the Yangtze River Basin, and southern China. For mid to high latitude regions, atmospheric instability is more sensitive to lightning occurrence, so indices such as BLI and LI perform better. The water vapour condition is a necessary factor for lightning occurrence, but its indicative significance for lightning cannot be used alone as a basis for lightning prediction. It should be determined by combining atmospheric circulation and other environmental field characteristics. Dynamic effects are deemed a necessary condition for the development of severe convective weather, although their ranking in the verification of dynamic indicators is relatively lower, failing to accurately reflect their importance for lightning occurrence. The lightning forecasting in China mainly relies on the determination of the location of lightning occurrence. It is necessary to combine the atmospheric circulation situation and environmental water vapour, dynamics, and thermal conditions to determine the area and possibility of thunderstorm occurrence, and then measure the accuracy of the forecast through weather verification indicators. These findings provide an objective reference for understanding and forecasting lightning activity in different regions in China.

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關良,田付友,鄭永光,曹艷察,劉自牧.2010—2019年中國閃電活動及其環境表征物理量分析研究[J].氣象科技,2024,52(6):858~868

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-23
  • 定稿日期:2024-09-30
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-12-25
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