冷渦背景下山東極端雷暴大風的天氣分型和預報著眼點
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山東省氣象局科研項目(2023sdqxz10、2018sdqxm16、2021sdqxm04)、濰坊市氣象局科研項目(2021wfqxkt07)資助


Weather Classification and Forecast Focuses of Extreme Thunderstorms and Gales on Background of Cold Votex in Shandong
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    摘要:

    利用2013—2021年間山東省氣象觀測站的逐時極大風速、MICAPS資料、雷達風廓線、華北雷達拼圖、閃電定位以及NCEP再分析等資料,將冷渦背景下山東極端雷暴大風的天氣類型分為低槽型、西北氣流型、橫槽型、高空冷渦型、副高邊緣型和暖切變線型6大類,并對冷渦背景下山東產生極端雷暴大風的預報著眼點進行分析。結果表明:①產生極端雷暴大風的雷暴形態有弓形、多單體風暴、颮線、超級單體和普通雷暴單體,其中以弓形和多單體風暴居多。②弓形回波的中部前沿出現極端雷暴大風概率較大。多單體風暴移向的右前方、颮線前沿和超級單體移動方向的右前方也是出現極端雷暴大風的關鍵區。③極端雷暴大風發生時,回波頂高一般在15 km以上,且極端雷暴大風出現在回波頂高大值中心移動方向的前或右前側。④當地面上出現2.5 hPa以上的小時增壓、相對于周邊環境大氣較低的冷池中心、對流層中下層環境風場明顯增強時,就要結合風暴移動方向,提前研判風暴移動方向的前方,尤其是右前方,是否有發生極端強雷暴大風的可能。

    Abstract:

    In order to gain a deeper understanding of the statistical characteristics and forecasting focuses of extreme thunderstorm gusts with a magnitude of 11 or above that occur in Shandong under the background of cold vortices and cause disasters, the paper analyses the large-scale circulation background, radar characteristics, vertical wind shear, and parameter features related to the intensity potential and momentum downward transmission of extreme thunderstorm winds. This is done by analysing the maximum hourly wind speed of automatic precipitation data, MICAPS data, radar wind profile, North China radar, lightning positioning data and NCEP reanalysis data during 2013-2021, through statistical methods, weather diagnosis, and synthetic analysis, etc. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The extreme thunderstorm gale events above grade 11 are divided into 6 categories: low trough type, northwest airflow type, transverse trough type, upper cold vortex type, subtropical high marginal type and warm shear type. (2) There are five types of thunderstorms that produce extreme thunderstorm wind: bow echo, multi-cell storm, squall line, supercell and ordinary thunderstorm, among which bow echo and multi-cell storm are the main forms, accounting for 63% of the total number of occurrences. Squall lines and supercells are also forms of extreme thunderstorm winds, accounting for 17% and 13% respectively. (3) The middle front of the bow echo is the region with a high probability of extreme thunderstorm and gale. The right front of the moving direction of the multi-cell storm, the front of the squall line and the right front of the moving direction of the supercell are also the key areas of the extreme thunderstorm and gale. (4) When the extreme thunderstorm and gale occur, the top height of the echo is usually above 15 km. The extreme thunderstorm gale appears in the front or right front of the moving direction of the high centre of the Echo Top. (5) When the strong hourly pressure change over 2.5 hPa appears on the ground, the cold pool centre is lower than the surrounding atmosphere, and the environmental wind field in the middle and lower troposphere is obviously strengthened, the moving direction of the storm should be combined, to determine in advance the direction of the storm ahead, especially the right front, whether there is the possibility of extreme thunderstorm gale.

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張芹.冷渦背景下山東極端雷暴大風的天氣分型和預報著眼點[J].氣象科技,2024,52(6):816~829

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-12
  • 定稿日期:2024-09-02
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-12-25
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