臨近預報滾動融合外推方法及其適用性評估
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山西省氣象局重點項目(SXKZDTC20236303)、山西省研發項目(CXFZ2024J011)共同資助


Rolling Fusion Extrapolation Method of Nowcast and Its Applicability Assessment
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    摘要:

    為實現多種臨近預報外推方法的有效融合,提升臨近外推的準確性。本文提出了一種將光流法(Optical Flow, OF)與深度學習(Deep Learning, DL)滾動融合的雷達組合反射率(Composite Reflectivity,CR)外推方法(Rolling Fusion Neural Network, RFNet),以提升臨近預報的準確性。RFNet采用兩層卷積神經網絡,并通過粒子群算法(Particle Swarm Optimization, PSO)優化網絡參數,解決CR強度不平衡問題。RFNet在訓練中使用OF和DL外推的10個時次CR預測未來10個時次的CR,訓練后的RFNet作為下一次訓練的預訓練模型,以提升訓練效率。結果表明,RFNet有效緩解了DL的強度衰減和回波結構模糊問題。在20和30 dBz閾值處,DL和RFNet外推效果相近,均優于OF。在40 dBz閾值處,0~30 min內DL效果最好,30 min后RFNet表現最佳。在50 dBz閾值處,RFNet在42 min內顯著優于DL和OF。RFNet在40 dBz以上的外推效果隨CREF強度增大而提升。

    Abstract:

    In the realm of meteorological forecasting, the integration of various nowcasting extrapolation methods is critical for enhancing accuracy and reliability. This paper introduces an innovative method for radar echo extrapolation called Rolling Fusion (RF), specifically designed to improve radar composite reflectivity (CREF) extrapolation. RF represents a novel synthesis of Optical Flow (OF) and Deep Learning (DL) methodologies, targeting the enhancement of nowcasting weather predictions. Central to the RF approach is RFNet, a sophisticated tool that employs a two-layer convolutional neural network. This network is optimised using Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO), a computational methodology inspired by the social behaviour of birds and fish. PSO is particularly valuable in refining the network’s parameters to tackle the prevalent issue of CREF intensity imbalance, which can skew forecasting results. By optimising these parameters, RFNet ensures a balanced and accurate representation of various intensity levels, crucial for predicting severe weather conditions. The training process for RFNet is meticulously structured, utilising 10 steps of CREF data extrapolated from both OF and DL methods to anticipate the subsequent 10 steps. This dynamic approach not only enables high accuracy in nowcasting predictions but also enhances training efficiency by using the initially trained RFNet as a pre-trained model for further training cycles. This layered training process reduces computational demands, making the system both time-efficient and resource-efficient. Empirical results from this study reveal that RFNet effectively mitigates common drawbacks associated with deep learning predictions, specifically intensity attenuation and echo structure blurring. These enhancements allow RFNet to provide clearer and more accurate forecasts. Performance assessments across various intensity thresholds from 20 to 50 dBz demonstrate the method’s robustness. At lower thresholds, such as 20 and 30 dBz, RFNet and DL exhibit comparable performance, both of which surpass the capabilities of OF. In these scenarios, RFNet’s advanced integration of methodologies ensures superior forecasting precision. At a 40 dBz threshold, DL initially excels within the first 30 minutes of forecast duration. However, RFNet outperforms DL beyond this timeframe, highlighting its strength in extended forecasting scenarios. Notably, at the 50 dBz threshold, RFNet displays a significant performance advantage over both DL and OF, maintaining superior forecasting ability for up to 42 minutes. This capability is particularly valuable in predicting high-intensity weather events, where rapid changes necessitate agile and accurate forecasting models. Additionally, the research indicates a trend where RFNet’s extrapolation performance improves as CREF intensity surpasses 40 dBz. This improvement underscores the system’s adaptability and effectiveness in handling severe weather conditions, ultimately contributing to more reliable and actionable nowcasting weather forecasts.

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郭文昕,李蓉,于萬榮,李建強,鄭宇,陳霄健,劉鑫,劉思辰,牛劉敏,楊杰,車慧正.臨近預報滾動融合外推方法及其適用性評估[J].氣象科技,2024,52(6):807~815

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-16
  • 定稿日期:2024-09-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-12-25
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