廣州荔枝氣象指數保險產品
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廣州市氣象局都市氣候與農業氣象創新團隊、廣州市氣象學會科研項目(M202219)資助


Research on Guangzhou Litchi Meteorological Index Insurance Product
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    摘要:

    以廣州從化和增城地區的荔枝作為保險標的物,結合荔枝全生育期的氣象災害,設計荔枝氣象指數保險產品,并進行保險賠付率驗證?;诶笾Ξa量數據和歷史氣象資料,構建荔枝氣象指數,擬合氣象指數的分布情況,厘定觸發賠付的不同氣象指數的保險純費率和單位面積保險金額,設置不同等級的賠付金額。研究表明,從化荔枝花期降水指數R1,增城荔枝抽穗期低溫指數Tmin、果熟期降水指數R100 d是導致荔枝減產的關鍵氣象指數。當從化荔枝花期累積降水量達350 mm,增城荔枝抽穗期最低氣溫為3.3 ℃、果熟期日雨量≥100 mm的累積天數為2 d時觸發理賠。對應氣象指數不同等級的保費金額分別在448~2582元/hm2、522~2567元/hm2、1403~3284元/hm2之間,不同氣象指數各等級的賠付比例分別在7%~10%、7%~10%、10%~12%之間,兩區10年、20年和30年3個時間尺度的平均賠付率分別為77.0%、69.6%和63.7%,與保險公司賠付率65%~75%的要求較為一致。研發的荔枝氣象指數保險產品可為廣州新一輪政策性農業保險提供參考,為荔枝果農分散轉移氣象災害風險提供技術支持。

    Abstract:

    This study uses litchi from Conghua and Zengcheng regions in Guangzhou as insurance targets, and combines the meteorological disasters throughout the entire growth period of litchi to design litchi meteorological index insurance products and verify insurance payout rates. Based on the litchi yield data and historical meteorological data, litchi yield reduction rate models are structured. Based on the correlation between meteorological factors and yield reduction rate, key meteorological indicators that affect litchi yield are screened. Further, the distribution of litchi meteorological index is fitted, the insurance pure premium rate and the insurance amount per unit area for different meteorological index grades which trigger compensation are determined. The meteorological index is set to 2 to 4 levels; different weather index levels of the amount of compensation are determined; and the rationality of compensation rates at different time scales is verified. In this study, the time scale of litchi yield and planting area data is from 2001 to 2020, while the time scale of meteorological data is from 1959 to 2020. The results show that the precipitation index at the flowering stage of litchi in Conghua district, the low-temperature index at the heading stage, and the precipitation index at the ripening stage of litchi in Zengcheng district are the key meteorological indicators that lead to the reduction of litchi yield in the two regions mentioned above, respectively. When the cumulative precipitation in Conghua district reaches 350 mm at the flowering stage of litchi, the minimum temperature is 3.3 ℃ at the heading stage of litchi, and the cumulative daily rainfall of ≥100 mm at the ripening stage of litchi lasts 2 days in Zengcheng district, a claim is triggered. The premium amounts corresponding to different levels of three meteorological indices are between 448-2582 yuan/hm2, 522-2567 yuan/hm2, 1403-3284 yuan/hm2, respectively. The compensation ratios for different meteorological indices and levels are between 7%-10%, 7%-10%, and 10%-12%, respectively. The average payout rates of Conghua district and Zengcheng district at three times in 10, 20 and 30 years are 77.0%, 69.6% and 63.7% respectively, which is consistent with the requirement of 65%-75% of the insurance company’s claim rate. The designed insurance product of Litchi Meteorological Index can provide a reference for a new round of policy agricultural insurance in Guangzhou, and provide technical support for litchi farmers to disperse and transfer the risk of meteorological disasters.

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彭曉丹,歐善國,藍靜,胡磊.廣州荔枝氣象指數保險產品[J].氣象科技,2024,52(5):753~761

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-13
  • 定稿日期:2024-06-17
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-10-30
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