基于Tabnet的日極大風風速訂正預報模型
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廣西自然科學基金項目(2024GXNSFDA010047,2023GXNSFBA026349,2023GXNSFAA026414)資助


Research on Daily Extreme Wind Speed Correction Forecast Based on Tabnet
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    摘要:

    為了提高日極大風風速的預報能力,特別是8級以上風力的預報,本文以歐洲中期天氣預報中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECWMF)模式輸出的過去3 h陣風風速預報作為輸入因子,同時針對ECWMF模式過去3 h陣風風速預報存在的小量級風預報偏大、大量級風預報偏小的預報特征,利用近5年地面觀測實況以及ECWMF模式過去3 h陣風資料,構建基于Tabnet的日極大風分級訂正預報模型。其中,模型的輸入設計包含了前期實況、站點的地理信息、ECWMF模式的預報場及其前期預報誤差項。該模型在1年半獨立檢驗樣本的估測結果中,其預報模型的平均絕對誤差相對ECWMF模式插值降低了45.2%,相應的均方根誤差也減少了25.7%。進一步地,在1~5級和8~9級以上風力等級的預報上,該預報模型的預報準確率較利用ECWMF模式預報場插值得到的預報方法均有明顯提高,表明該預報方法的可行性。

    Abstract:

    To enhance the forecasting capability for daily extreme wind speeds, particularly for winds exceeding force 8, this paper uses the “past 3 h gust” wind speed forecast output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model as the primary input factor. Additionally, the paper addresses the extremely uneven sample distribution in the daily extreme wind speed series (samples with wind force above level 8 constitute a very small proportion of the total sample, while samples with wind force below level 5 constitute the vast majority). Moreover, the ECMWF model’s “past 3 h gust” wind speed forecast tends to overestimate low-level winds and underestimate high-level winds. Therefore, the paper leverages nearly five years of surface observations and ECMWF model “past 3 h gust” forecast data to develop a Tabnet-based daily extreme wind classification correction forecast model. The model’s input design includes previous observations, geographic information of the stations, ECMWF forecast fields, and previous forecast error terms. In the evaluation of an independent sample over one and a half years, the new correction forecast model reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) by 45.2% and the root mean square error (RMSE) by 25.7% compared to the interpolated ECMWF model. Furthermore, for wind force levels 1-5 and above 8-9, the new correction forecast model significantly improves the forecasting accuracy compared to the method using interpolated ECMWF forecast fields, demonstrating the feasibility of this forecasting approach.The model is constructed with a focus on overcoming the inherent limitations of the ECMWF model’s wind speed forecasts. By incorporating comprehensive input factors such as historical observation data, the geographical context of observation stations, and systematic forecast error corrections, the model aims to provide a more accurate prediction of extreme wind events. The primary challenge addressed by the model is the skewed distribution of wind force levels in the dataset, where extreme wind events are underrepresented. The innovative use of the Tabnet algorithm allows for a sophisticated analysis and adjustment of the forecast data, thus ensuring higher accuracy in predicting both low and high wind force levels. The independent validation over an extensive period highlights the robustness of the model. The significant reduction in MAE and RMSE underscores the model’s enhanced performance. Specifically, the accuracy improvements for the critical wind force levels 1-5 and 8-9 plus indicate the model’s practical applicability in real-world scenarios. This advancement is crucial for sectors reliant on precise wind forecasts, such as maritime operations, aviation, and disaster preparedness. The results clearly suggest that integrating historical data and addressing the ECMWF model’s biases can lead to substantial improvements in extreme wind speed forecasting. In conclusion, the development of the Tabnet-based correction forecast model represents a significant step forward in meteorological forecasting. By effectively addressing the biases and limitations of existing models, this new approach offers a more reliable tool for predicting extreme wind events.

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梁利,趙華生,吳玉霜.基于Tabnet的日極大風風速訂正預報模型[J].氣象科技,2024,52(5):714~722

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-18
  • 定稿日期:2024-06-19
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-10-30
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