長江中下游致洪大暴雨事件的關鍵環流型聚類分析
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

國家自然基金(42175056;U2342208)、上海市自然基金(21ZR1457600)、中國氣象局創新發展專項(CXFZ2022J009)和中國氣象局氣候預測重點創新團隊(CMA2023ZD03)資助


Clustering Study on Key Circulation Pattern of Flood-Waterlogging Rainfall Events in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    大范圍的持續性暴雨事件會影響水文條件,造成洪水影響。本文針對20世紀60年代以來長江中下游致洪大暴雨事件個例,基于隨機分化模擬退火聚類方法和擾動集合相似方法,研究致洪大暴雨事件的關鍵環流型及其對大暴雨的定量貢獻。結果表明,長江中下游致洪大暴雨事件多發生在梅雨集中降水期,多個事件平均的日峰值降水強度達暴雨量級。致洪暴雨的500 hPa環流形勢可聚類為4類,分別為:東亞南高北低型(1型)、東亞三明治型(2型)、南支槽型(3型)和高緯雙阻型(4型)。4個聚類下的西太平洋副高和南支槽對致洪大暴雨的貢獻較為穩定,約占3成和1.5成;而中高緯系統影響較不穩定,東北亞環流異常對聚類1、3和4型的貢獻平均近2成,貝加爾湖阻塞異常對聚類2型有微弱貢獻;中緯度西風槽異常對聚類4型的貢獻約為2成。4個聚類下的10~30 d和30~60 d低頻環流顯著異常區和原始觀測的環流異常關鍵區基本一致。西太平洋副高區的低頻環流對所有事件均有正貢獻,占比約2~7成;其中,除30~60 d低頻環流對所有事件有影響外,其10~30 d低頻活動對聚類1~2型事件也有明顯影響。南支槽區的30~60 d低頻環流對聚類3和4型事件的貢獻占比為27%和16%。大暴雨事件相聯系的高緯低頻環流關鍵區分別位于貝加爾湖和鄂霍茨克海(1型)、烏拉爾山和西風槽區(2型)、東北冷渦(3型),且貢獻各不相同(12%~31%)。上述關鍵環流型及其定量貢獻評估結果可為加深對致洪大暴雨事件的形成認識和預報預測提供依據。

    Abstract:

    Prolonged and widespread heavy rainfall events can significantly impact hydrological conditions, leading to devastating floods. This study focuses on individual cases of flood-waterlogging rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since the 1960s. We employed a combination of SAN (simulated annealing and diversified randomization) clustering method and perturbed ensemble analog method to investigate the key circulation patterns associated with these flood-waterlogging rainfall events and quantify their contributions to heavy rainfall. Results indicate that these flood-waterlogging rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River typically occur during the Meiyu season. Averaged over all events, the daily peak precipitation intensity reaches the level of a rainstorm. The 500 hPa circulation patterns associated with extreme rainfall were categorized into four classes: East Asian dipole mode (Class 1), East Asian Sandwich mode (Class 2), South Branch Trough (Class 3), and High-Latitude Double Block (Class 4). The key circulation features of each class are distributed in the Western Pacific Subtropical High, South Branch Trough, mid-latitude westerly trough, and high-latitude blocking activity areas, contributing to 40% to 70% of flood-waterlogging rainfall events. The Western Pacific Subtropical High and South Branch Trough contribute relatively consistently in all four categories, accounting for approximately 30% and 15%, respectively. However, the influence of mid-high latitude systems is less stable, with the Northeast Asian circulation anomaly contributing to an average of nearly 20% to Classes 1, 3, and 4, and the Baikal Lake blocking anomaly making a weak contribution to Class 2. The mid-latitude westerly trough anomaly contributes to approximately 20% of Class 4 events. The significant anomaly regions of low-frequency circulation at 10-30 days and 30-60 days in the four classes are generally consistent with the observed circulation anomaly key regions. Low-frequency circulation in the Western Pacific Subtropical High region has a positive contribution to all events, ranging from about 20% to 70%. Among these, the 10-30 day low-frequency activity also has a notable impact on Class 1 and 2 events. The 30-60 day low-frequency circulation in the South Branch Trough region contributes 27% and 16% to Classes 3 and 4 events, respectively. The key high-latitude low-frequency circulation relating to the flood-waterlogging rainfall events located in Lake Baikal and the Okhotsk Sea (Class 1), the Ural Mountains and the westerly trough region (Class 2), the cold vortex region in Northeast China (Class 3), with their contribution varying among different classes (12%-31%). The findings of this study on key circulation patterns and their quantitative contributions provide valuable insights for a deeper understanding of the formation and prediction of flood-waterlogging rainfall events.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

施文,梁萍,曹欣沛.長江中下游致洪大暴雨事件的關鍵環流型聚類分析[J].氣象科技,2024,52(5):652~667

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2023-09-21
  • 定稿日期:2024-06-17
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2024-10-30
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>