寒潮背景下舟山群島氣溫空間插值方案對比評估
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浙江省基礎公益研究計劃項目(LGF22D050007)、中國氣象局復盤總結專項項目(FPZJ2023-052)、浙江省氣象局重點項目(2022ZD30)、舟山市公益性科技項目(2022C31074)資助


Comparative Analysis of Spatial Interpolation Performance of Different Schemes for Temperature over Zhoushan Islands under Cold Wave Scenario
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    摘要:

    在測站稀疏的海島地區,如何科學選擇插值方案以合理體現氣象要素的空間分布特征是精細化監測面臨的重要問題。以舟山群島為例,挑選了有中尺度站觀測以來(2014—2021 年)影響舟山的8 次寒潮過程,對比檢驗了普通克里格(Ordinary Kriging,OK)、反距離權重(Inverse Distance Weighing,IDW)、ANUSPLIN(以下簡稱ANU)三種方案的插值效果。針對8 次過程的過程最低氣溫、日最低氣溫降幅和日平均氣溫降幅,在53 個測站中隨機選取11 個檢驗站點,發現ANU的插值誤差高于OK和IDW。進一步設計了周邊站點密集、周邊站點稀疏、檢驗站點脫離本島三組插值試驗,分析表明,ANU的插值表現與周邊站點的密集程度息息相關:當周邊站點密集時,ANU的插值誤差小于OK和IDW;當周邊站點稀疏時,ANU的插值誤差明顯高于OK和IDW。在周邊站點密集分布的情形下,無論檢驗站點位于舟山本島還是零散小島上,ANU均能取得最優插值效果,說明在氣溫插值中ANU對地形的依賴相對較小,插值精度對插值效果的影響亦較小。

    Abstract:

    Compared to inland areas, meteorological stations in the island regions appear scarce and unevenly distributed, which leads to noteworthy uncertainty in detailed characterisation of various meteorological elements. For the Zhoushan Islands, located in Southeast China, there exist many islands and islets, and the local terrain is quite complex. Therefore, different interpolation strategies usually generate diverse gridded results, which largely influence the reliability and accuracy of operational climate monitoring and diagnosing. Under the background of climate change, the Zhoushan region is frequently invaded by cold waves in recent years, so how to scientifically choose an interpolation scheme to reasonably represent spatial distribution characteristics of temperature becomes an important issue in local climate operations. To solve this problem, based on the index of root mean square error (RMSE), the interpolation effect of Ordinary Kriging (OK), Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), and ANUSPLIN (ANU) are comparatively analysed for 8 cold wave processes influencing Zhoushan during 2014-2021. Two subdivided indices, i.e., temporal RMSE (TRMSE) and spatial RMSE (SRMSE) are further designed to evaluate the interpolation results on temporal and spatial dimensions respectively. Eleven stations are randomly selected from the total 53 meteorological observational stations to test the interpolation results of OK, IDW, and ANU for the minimum temperature, reduction of daily minimum temperature and daily-mean temperature in the 8 processes. It can be found that the bias in the ANU case is higher than that in the OK and IDW cases. To explain such a phenomenon, 3 interpolation experiments with dense surrounding stations, sparse surrounding stations, and specific distribution of examining stations (all the examining stations are not distributed in the main island of Zhoushan) are further designed. The results demonstrate that the performance of the ANU strategy is closely linked to the spread situation of peripheral stations. When the surrounding stations are concentrated, the interpolation bias of ANU is usually smaller than that of OK and IDW. However, if the surrounding stations appear sparse, the bias of ANU exhibits much larger. In the scenario of dense peripheral stations, regardless of the examining sites distributed over the main island or not, the ANU solution can always get the optimal interpolation results, which implies that the impact of topography on the performance of ANU in temperature interpolation is of less importance. Also, the influence of horizontal resolution for interpolation seems secondary. When the horizontal resolution for three interpolation schemes falls down to 1 km×1 km from 30 m×30 m, the change of RMSE is generally less than 0.1 ℃ for most circumstances, so the impact of interpolation resolution can be neglected.

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徐哲永,馬浩,傅娜,孫軼,盧琪,高大偉.寒潮背景下舟山群島氣溫空間插值方案對比評估[J].氣象科技,2024,52(5):630~643

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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-18
  • 定稿日期:2024-05-27
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-10-30
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