天氣雷達定量降水估測訂正優化算法
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地震預警與多災種預警應用信息技術四川省重點實驗室開放課題(2022KFKT001)資助


Research on Optimization of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Calibration Method
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    摘要:

    本文利用2020年5—9月山東省青島市S波段天氣雷達和地面雨量站數據,開展了基于最優插值的天氣雷達定量降水估測訂正方法的優化研究。根據青島地區地面雨量站的空間分布,確定了用于訂正格點估測降水的雨量站的搜索范圍。通過分析用于訂正的雨量站個數與分析誤差的關系,確定了參與訂正的最佳雨量站數量。采用隨機抽樣和交叉檢驗的方法,分析了不同相關函數模型對降水訂正結果的影響,最終得到適合青島地區的相關函數優化參數。進一步檢驗優化參數的訂正結果發現,訂正后估測降水的統計評分有明顯的提升,估測降水的強度和空間分布與實況更加一致。

    Abstract:

    The optimal interpolation method is widely used in meteorological applications worldwide. However, due to the different precipitation climate characteristics and the spatial distribution of gauges, the implementation of the optimal interpolation method involves many empirical models and key parameters. There is still some uncertainty on how to derive a set of optimised parameters for the application of the optimal interpolation method in a local region. This study analyses and optimises the key parameters of the optimal interpolation method for the calibration of weather radar quantitative precipitation estimation using radar and gauge observations from May to September 2020 in Qingdao, Shandong. The search radius of gauges from a grid point is determined by analysing the spatial distribution of all gauges relative to the analysis point. The optimal number of gauges used to calibrate the precipitation estimation of a grid point is determined by analysing the change of relative analysis error with respect to the number of gauges. Eight groups of sensitivity experiments with different correlation functions are compared by random sampling and cross-validation to find the best set of parameters for the Qingdao radar. The verification of calibration results produced by the best parameters shows that the calibration significantly improves the accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation. The median values of MAE, RMAE, and BIAS are 1.5 mm, 1.0, and 0.03 mm respectively, and the CORR is higher than 0.9. Comparing the quantitative precipitation estimation at different levels of precipitation before and after calibration produced by the best parameters shows that the MAE and RMAE of light rain are reduced by 90%, and the CORR is about 0.87. The MAE and RMAE in moderate to heavy rain are decreased by 89%, and the CORR is higher than 0.9. The MAE and RMAE of rainstorm are decreased by more than 83.9%, and the CORR is about 0.77. Based on the verification of a widespread rainfall case on 26 August 2020, the intensity and spatial distribution of the quantitative precipitation estimation after calibration are closer to the gauge observations. The original quantitative precipitation estimation is relatively smooth and lacks small-scale variations. The calibrated results can reflect the characteristics of the local change that is consistent with the observation of gauges. The results of this paper suggest that the optimal interpolation method with optimised local parameters can significantly improve the accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation, which has important application value for rainstorm warning and flood disaster prevention.

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唐佳佳,潘臻,唐曉文,張優君,萬夫敬.天氣雷達定量降水估測訂正優化算法[J].氣象科技,2024,52(5):619~629

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-12
  • 定稿日期:2024-03-28
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-10-30
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