基于風險普查的地質災害預警雨量閾值
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Research on Rainfall Threshold of Geological Hazard Warning Based on Risk Census
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    摘要:

    利用湖南省株洲市2011—2021年地質災害災情記錄及區域自動站降雨資料,統計分析了株洲市地質災害發生規律;以湖南省株洲市為例,分析了地質災害與降雨量特征值的關系,探討滑坡型地質災害預警雨量閾值確定辦法。結果表明,暴雨或以上強降雨是突發地質災害的主要誘因,地質災害不僅與當日降雨量有關,還與前期降雨量、降雨強度等密切相關;以有效降雨量、激活雨強作為致災因子,利用箱形圖分析法確定了不同預警分區內滑坡型地質災害藍色、黃色、橙色、紅色預警雨量閾值;經典型過程反查和歷史案例回算檢驗,以有效雨量為因子確定的地質災害預警雨量閾值,可應用于地質災害氣象風險預警服務,激活雨強確定的地質災害短臨預警閾值指標偏低,空報率大,不宜單獨使用。

    Abstract:

    The single-factor analysis and multi-factor comprehensive evaluation delineation method are used to evaluate the geo-disaster prone area, and the rainfall distribution characteristics and the frequency of geo-disasters are combined to determine the geo-disaster meteorological early warning area. Taking the towns and streets as early warning units, and the effective rainfall and activated rain intensity of geological disasters as the disaster-causing factors, the box plot analysis method is used to determine the rainfall threshold index value of all levels of landslide geological hazard. The method of typical heavy rainfall process combined with disaster reverse check and historical typical case back is used to test the rainfall threshold of geological disaster warning. From the statistical analysis of geological disaster census cases in Zhuzhou from 2011 to 2021, it is found that the geological disasters in Zhuzhou are mainly landslide disasters, followed by collapse, and small-scale geological disasters account for 98% of the total. The occurrence period of geological disasters in Zhuzhou is consistent with the rainy season, and landslide geological disasters are mainly distributed in Youxian County and Chaling County, and collapse disasters are mainly distributed in Lusong District and Hetang District. More than 80% of towns and streets in the city have experienced geological disasters. Geological disasters in Zhuzhou are closely related to rainfall, and heavy rain or more is the main factor for the formation of geological disasters in Zhuzhou. When the rain intensity is more than 20 mm/h, the risk of geological disasters in Zhuzhou is relatively high, and the risk of geological disasters induced by heavy rain intensity more than 50 mm/h is great. The critical value of effective rainfall for geological disasters in Liling is 61.9 mm, and the critical rainfall in other counties (cities, districts) is less than 50 mm, and the effective rainfall is more than 80 mm when more than 80% of geological disasters occur. The geological disaster meteorological early warning area of Zhuzhou can be divided into key early warning area A, sub-key early warning area B and general early warning area C. Each early warning area contains N early warning units of towns or streets. The effective rainfall and activated rain intensity are taken as the disaster factors. Using the box plot analysis method, it is clear that the disaster probability of 25% is the yellow warning rainfall threshold, the disaster probability of 50% is the orange warning rainfall threshold, and the disaster probability of 75% is the red warning rainfall threshold. The blue, yellow, orange and red warning rainfall thresholds of landslide-type geological disasters in different meteorological warning zones of Zhuzhou are determined. It is proved that the threshold index of early warning rainfall with effective rainfall as the disaster factor has a good application effect in practical early warning, while the threshold index of early warning rainfall with activated rainfall intensity as the disaster factor is lower and has a larger false alarm rate, so it should not be used alone in practical early warning.

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曾欣,黃夢妮,謝彥君,胡毓靈,謝倩雯,張志衛.基于風險普查的地質災害預警雨量閾值[J].氣象科技,2024,52(4):610~618

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  • 收稿日期:2023-08-30
  • 定稿日期:2024-05-07
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-08-28
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