基于AHP-熵權法的重載鐵路典型段大風災害風險評估
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河北省重點研發計劃項目(22375405D)、河北省氣象局科研開發項目(21ky09)資助


Risk Assessment Gale Disaster along Typical Sections of Heavy-Haul Railway Based on AHP and Entropy Weight Method
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    摘要:

    大風是影響重載鐵路運輸安全的主要氣象災害之一,開展大風災害風險評估對鐵路部門防災減災有一定的指導意義。本文以朔黃鐵路為研究對象,首先通過致災因子危險性、孕災環境敏感性、承災體易損性和防災減災能力4個準則層以及不同等級大風報警頻次、強橫風頻次、海拔高度、地形、股道數量、列車對數、車站級別、線路允許速度、橋梁、隧道、是否有防風墻、大風預警能力、搶險人數、應急救援設備物資17個指標層構建了重載鐵路典型段大風災害風險評估體系,然后利用AHP-熵權法確定各指標層和準則層的權重,最后得到重載鐵路典型段大風災害綜合風險區劃。結果表明:神池南—寧武西、黃驊南—黃驊港、北港—大港、神港段為高風險路段;龍宮—滴流磴、黃驊東—羊三木為次高風險路段;猴刎—三汲、行唐—曲陽、定州西—定州東、安國—博野、蠡縣—李天木、竇莊子—郭莊子為中風險路段??梢娢鞑可降亍⑶鹆甑貐^和東部沿海地區鐵路路段大風災害綜合風險等級最高。

    Abstract:

    Gale is one of the main meteorological disasters affecting the safety of heavy haul railway transportation. Therefore, carrying out a risk assessment of gale disasters has certain guiding significance for preventing disasters and reducing damages in railway departments. This paper takes Shuozhou-Huanghua railway as a typical section of the heavy haul railway. First, the risk assessment system of gale disasters in typical sections along the heavy haul railways is constructed based on the four criteria levels such as the disaster-inducing factors of gale, environmental sensitivity of gale disasters, vulnerability of gale disaster-bearing bodies, and the capability of disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as the 17 indicator layers such as the number of blue level alarms for gale, the number of yellow level alarms for gale, the number of orange level alarms for gale, the number of red level alarms for gale, frequency of strong crosswind, altitude, terrain, the number of tracks, the number of trains, station level, allowable speed of lines, bridges, tunnels, presence of wind barriers, strong wind warning capabilities, the number of emergency personnel, and emergency rescue equipment and materials. Then, the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method are used to determine the weight coefficients of the above four criteria levels and the above 17 indicator layers of emergency, and finally, the comprehensive risk zoning of wind disasters in typical sections of heavy-duty railways is obtained. The results show that the railway sections from Shenchi South station to Ningwu West station, from Huanghua South station to Huanghua Port station, from Beigang station to Dagang station, and Shengang station are the highest risk sections of gale disasters along the Shuozhou-Huanghua railway. The railway sections from Longgong station to Diliudeng station, and from Huanghua East station to Yangsanmu station are the second highest risk sections of gale disasters along Shuozhou-Huanghua railway. The railway sections from Houwen station to Sanji station, from Xingtang station to Quyang station, from Dingzhou West station to Dingzhou East station, from Anguo station to Boye station, from Lixian station to Litianmu station, and from Douzhuangzi station to Guozhuangzi station are medium high risk sections of gale disasters along Shuozhou-Huanghua railway. To sum up, it can be seen that the comprehensive risk level of gale disasters along Shuozhou-Huanghua railway sections in the western mountainous, hilly areas and eastern coastal areas is the highest.

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張娣,張金滿,曲曉黎,楊琳晗,王潔,周朔.基于AHP-熵權法的重載鐵路典型段大風災害風險評估[J].氣象科技,2024,52(4):592~600

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-13
  • 定稿日期:2024-03-27
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-08-28
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