吉林省玉米倒伏災害天氣分型及典型過程分析
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吉林省科技發展計劃項目(20210203153SF、20210203150SF、20220203186SF)資助


Weather Classification and Analysis of Typical Processes Leading to Maize Lodging Disasters in Jilin Province
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    摘要:

    為探求造成吉林省玉米倒伏災害的天氣系統類型、特征及發生規律,利用歷史災情和玉米發育期數據、ERA5再分析資料,采用典型個例分析方法,對吉林省造成玉米倒伏災害的天氣系統進行了分析總結。結果表明:造成玉米倒伏災害的天氣系統主要有臺風、東北冷渦、低空切變線及高空槽。玉米拔節—抽雄期倒伏主要受東北冷渦影響,抽雄-乳熟期主要受低空切變線、高空槽影響,乳熟-成熟期主要受北上臺風影響。臺風是造成吉林省玉米倒伏最為嚴重的天氣系統,影響范圍廣,其移動路徑對作物倒伏災害的發生范圍起決定性作用,倒伏災害多發生在臺風移動路徑的西側或北側,地面低壓系統的北側。東北冷渦次之,倒伏主要發生在水汽、動力、熱力和對流不穩定條件均最為顯著的冷渦東南象限。低空切變線、高空槽影響范圍小,低空切變線類倒伏發生位置取決于低空切變線或輻合線的位置。高空槽類倒伏一般發生在高空槽前,地面冷鋒附近。

    Abstract:

    In order to thoroughly comprehend the types, characteristics, and patterns of weather systems leading to maize lodging disasters in Jilin Province, an analytical approach employing historical disaster data, maize development period data, and ERA5 reanalysis data is adopted. Utilising typical case analysis methods, we seek to scrutinise and summarise the weather systems associated with maize lodging disasters in Jilin Province. The outcomes indicate that four predominant types of weather systems contribute significantly to maize lodging in the region: typhoon, northeast cold vortex, low-level shear line, and upper trough. During the jointing tasselling period, maize lodging is predominantly influenced by the northeast cold vortex, while during the tasselling milking period, the primary influencing factors are the low-level shear line and upper trough. The milking ripening period is chiefly affected by the northward movement of typhoons. Typhoons emerge as the most severe weather system causing maize lodging in Jilin Province, exhibiting extensive impacts, with the trajectory of their movement playing a pivotal role in determining the extent of crop lodging disasters. Typically, maize lodging disasters triggered by typhoons occur predominantly on the western or northern peripheries of their paths and on the northern flank of the associated surface low-pressure system. The second most influential weather system is the northeast cold vortex. Maize lodging disasters instigated by the cold vortex primarily manifest in the southeast quadrant of its influence, where conditions such as water vapour, dynamics, heat, and convective instability are most pronounced. The low-level shear line and upper trough exhibit a limited influence range. The occurrence site of maize lodging induced by the low-level shear line is contingent upon the positioning of the low-level shear line or convergence line. Maize lodging disasters attributed to upper-level troughs typically manifest in the frontal region of the upper-level trough, proximal to the ground cold front.

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王冬妮,云天,任航,蘇麗欣.吉林省玉米倒伏災害天氣分型及典型過程分析[J].氣象科技,2024,52(4):560~570

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-04
  • 定稿日期:2024-03-08
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-08-28
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