汕頭S波段雙偏振雷達降水估測效果分析
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廣東省氣象局科研項目(GRMC2020M33)“汕頭雙偏振雷達降水估測效果分析及訂正”資助


Analysis of Precipitation Estimation Effect of S-Band Dual-Polarization Radar in Shantou
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    摘要:

    為提高雷達定量降水估測的精度,本文選取2018—2022年汕頭地區3次西南季風和3次臺風降水過程,利用S波段雙偏振雷達和自動站雨量計資料進行雷達降水估測效果分析。通過5個誤差指標,分析了傳統的PPS法、Ryzhkov的Ryzhkov法、郭佳的CSU-HIDRO_I法和汪舵的HCA-LIQ法,共4種雷達降水估測算法在6次降水過程中的降水估測效果,得出以下結論:在不分降水量級和降水類型的情況下,采用CSU-HIDRO_I進行雷達降水估測效果最優;在分雨強的情況下,小雨類采用Ryzhkov最優,中雨類和強降水類采用CSU-HIDRO_I最優;在分降水類型的情況下,西南季風降水過程中采用CSU-HIDRO_I最優,而臺風降水過程中采用HCA-LIQ最優。在實際應用中,可綜合考慮雨強和降水類型,采用相應的降水估測算法以提高雷達在定量降水估測的精度。

    Abstract:

    As the main equipment for atmospheric detection, weather radar plays an important role in meteorological operations, weather early warning, and atmospheric science research. With the upgrading of the S-band dual-polarisation radar, it is very important to improve the precision of radar quantitative precipitation estimation. In this paper, three southwest monsoon and three typhoon precipitation processes over the Shantou region from 2018 to 2022 are selected as the research objects. Hourly rainfall data from the S-band dual-linear polarisation weather radar and 43 automatic weather gauges in Shantou are used to analyse the effectiveness of radar precipitation estimation. To improve the reliability and accuracy of data, the data quality control of radar and rain gauge data is carried out by various means. The data of 92,880 polarisation samples are obtained by matching the station coordinates of the rain gauge with the multi-polarisation parameters of the radar from the time dimension and the space dimension. By means of five error indexes: mean error (ME), relative error (RE), root mean square error (RMSE), standard deviation (STD) and correlation coefficient (ρ), the total samples, sub-rainfall intensity samples and sub-precipitation type samples of PPS, Ryzhkov, CSU-HIDRO and HCA-LIQ radar precipitation estimation algorithms in six precipitation processes are evaluated respectively. By comparing and analysing the error indexes and the stability of the algorithm between the estimated value of radar precipitation and the measured value of rain gauge, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) in the total sample, CSU-HIDRO algorithm and HCA-LIQ algorithm outperform PPS algorithm and Ryzhkov algorithm, with CSU-HIDRO algorithm being the best; (2) CSU-HIDRO algorithm and HCA-LIQ algorithm perform better than PPS algorithm and Ryzhkov algorithm in the samples of southwest monsoon precipitation and typhoon precipitation, with CSU-HIDRO algorithm performing best in the samples of southwest monsoon precipitation, and HCA-LIQ algorithm performing best in typhoon precipitation samples; (3) Ryzhkov algorithm performs best in light rain samples, CSU-HIDRO algorithm outperforms other algorithms in medium rain samples and heavy rain samples, with HCA-LIQ algorithm being next. In a word, both CSU-HIDRO algorithm and HCA-LIQ algorithm adopt the data of raindrop spectrum in South China to improve the fitting of formula parameters, and the effect of quantitative precipitation estimation is better than the other two algorithms in the United States. In practical application, the rainfall intensity and precipitation type can be considered synthetically, and the corresponding precipitation estimation algorithm can be adopted to improve the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimation. At the same time, it also provides reference for the secondary development of radar products and short-term forecast and early warning.

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黃裔誠,陳歡歡,許思涵,陳禹旭,鄭曉欽.汕頭S波段雙偏振雷達降水估測效果分析[J].氣象科技,2024,52(4):477~487

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  • 收稿日期:2023-08-03
  • 定稿日期:2024-03-08
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-08-28
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