遼寧省精細化暴雨洪澇災害風險評估與預評估
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遼寧省氣象局科研課題(202408)、遼寧省第一次自然災害綜合風險普查、遼寧省氣象局人才計劃科技活動資助項目(RC202302)和中國氣象局創新發展專項(CXFZ2021J047)資助


Risk Assessment and Pre-assessment of Refined Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in Liaoning Province
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    摘要:

    基于遼寧省61個國家氣象站1961—2020年和998個區域自動氣象觀測站建站至2020年逐小時、逐日降水資料,分析了遼寧省暴雨洪澇災害主要致災因子,計算了暴雨洪澇孕災環境指標,完成了遼寧省暴雨洪澇災害危險性評估。結果表明:暴雨洪澇高危險性地區主要位于丹東;暴雨洪澇災害人口高風險區主要位于沈陽和大連市區;經濟高風險區主要位于大連和盤錦市區;水稻、玉米高風險區主要位于錦州、盤錦和丹東。利用遼寧省無縫隙智能網格預報數據對2022年7月28—29日的暴雨過程災害風險進行了預評估,發現暴雨災害危險性高值區域主要分布在朝陽、葫蘆島以及遼寧中部。暴雨災害可能造成的人口、經濟高風險區域主要位于遼寧西部和中部地區;暴雨災害可能造成的水稻和玉米高風險區主要位于沈陽、鐵嶺和朝陽北部等地區。預計高風險區主要影響人口約為449萬人,經濟損失約為1432萬元,受影響的水稻面積約為1.028萬公頃、玉米面積約為1.798萬公頃。通過災后效果檢驗,發現預評估模型效果良好,可在實際的暴雨洪澇災害風險評估業務中使用。

    Abstract:

    Based on the hourly and daily precipitation data of 61 national meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020 and 998 regional automatic meteorological observation stations from the beginning of the establishment to 2020 in Liaoning Province, we analyse the main causing factors of rainstorm and flood disaster, calculate the environmental indicators of rainstorm and flood disaster, and complete the hazard assessment of rainstorm and flood disaster in Liaoning Province. The results show that the high-risk area of rainstorms and floods is mainly located in Dandong. The high population risk areas of rainstorm and flood disaster are mainly located in Shenyang and Dalian urban areas. The high economic risk areas of rainstorm and flood disaster are mainly located in Dalian and Panjin urban areas. The high-risk areas of rice and maize are mainly located in Jinzhou, Panjin, and Dandong. The disaster risk of the rainstorm process on 28-29 July 2022 is pre-assessed using the intelligent grid forecast data of Liaoning Province. It is found that the high hazardous areas are mainly distributed in Chaoyang, Huludao, and the central part of Liaoning. The population and economic high-risk areas caused by the rainstorm disaster are mainly located in the western and central areas. The high-risk areas of rice and maize caused by rainstorm disaster are mainly located in Shenyang, Tieling, and the north of Chaoyang. It is estimated that the population affected in the high-risk area is about 4.49 million, the economic loss is about 14.32 million yuan. The affected rice area is about 10,280 hectares, the maize area is about 17,798 hectares. Through the post-disaster effect test, it is found that the pre-assessment model is effective and can be used in the actual rainstorm and flood disaster risk assessment business.

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敖雪,翟晴飛,趙春雨,周曉宇,崔妍,李經緯,李明倩.遼寧省精細化暴雨洪澇災害風險評估與預評估[J].氣象科技,2024,52(3):403~414

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-05
  • 定稿日期:2024-01-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-06-25
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