基于災害風險理論的湖北水稻高溫熱害風險分析及區劃
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中國人保財險湖北省分公司委托項目(20160921CI000001)資助


Analysis and Regionalization of Rice HighTemperature Harm Risk in Hubei Province Based on Disaster Risk Theory
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    摘要:

    高溫熱害是長江流域最主要的氣象災害之一,科學評估熱害風險是防災減災的基礎。本文利用近60年氣象觀測資料,對湖北高溫熱害的時空分布特征進行了分析;基于自然災害風險基本理論,建立了包括影響水稻結實率關鍵期的熱害強度、災害發生時承災體實際暴露度、災害脆弱性等因素的高溫熱害風險評價模型,并進行了風險分析與區劃。結果表明:高溫天氣出現概率高的時段是7月下旬,其中7月第6候為最高。從高溫熱害風險指數上來看,7月第3候抽穗開花水稻的熱害風險最高,此后隨時間的推移,熱害風險降低;湖北現行的一季中稻抽穗開花期處于風險較高的時段,推遲5天其熱害風險指數可下降20%左右;推遲15天以上熱害風險指數將降低50%以上。江漢平原稻區是湖北高溫熱害風險低發地區,鄂東南及鄂西北地區是熱害風險高發地區;針對各區熱害特點提出了風險應對措施。

    Abstract:

    Hightemperature heat damage is one of the main meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin, and scientific assessment of heat damage risk is the basis for disaster prevention and reduction. This study is utilising meteorological observation data from the past 60 years to analyse the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of hightemperature heat damage in Hubei. Based on the basic theory of natural disaster risk, a hightemperature heat damage risk assessment model is established, which includes factors such as the heat damage intensity that affects the critical period of rice seed setting rate, the actual exposure of the disaster bearing body during the disaster occurrence, and the vulnerability of the disaster. Risk analysis and zoning are conducted. The results show that the period with a high probability of hightemperature weather occurrence is late July, with the 6th pentad in July being the highest. From the perspective of the hightemperature heat damage risk index, the heat damage risk of rice heading and flowering in the third pentad of July is the highest, and thereafter, the heat damage risk decreases over time. The current heading and flowering period of one season mid season rice in Hubei is at a highrisk period, and delaying it for 5 days can reduce its heat damage risk index by about 20%; delaying for more than 15 days reduces the heat hazard risk index by more than 50%. The southeastern and northwestern regions of Hubei are highrisk areas for hightemperature heat damage. For the southeastern region of Hubei, it is recommended to postpone the sowing period by about 15 days or choose more heatresistant varietals to reduce the impact of hightemperature heat damage. Heat resistant varieties should be selected in the northwest of Hubei to reduce the risk of hightemperature and heat damage, and it is not advisable to postpone the sowing date to avoid the impact of autumn rain in western China on the rice harvest period. Due to the inferior water resource conditions compared to the Jianghan Plain in northern Hubei, and the frequent occurrence of hightemperatures accompanied by drought, it is recommended to choose heatresistant varieties and moderately control the rice planting area in the northern Hubei rice region. Regenerated rice should try to choose some heatresistant varieties and strengthen farmland management to cope with hightemperature and heat damage.

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李世剛,王東仙,劉可群,劉志雄.基于災害風險理論的湖北水稻高溫熱害風險分析及區劃[J].氣象科技,2024,52(2):288~296

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  • 收稿日期:2023-02-06
  • 定稿日期:2024-01-24
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-04-29
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