基于FloodArea模型的成都主城區內澇風險評估
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

國家自然科學基金項目(42175085)、高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災害四川省重點實驗室科技發展基金項目(SCQXKJYJXZD202102, SCQXKJYJXZD202321)、中國氣象局決策氣象服務專項重點項目(JCZX2023010)和川藏鐵路氣象服務技術創新團隊(西南氣中〔2022〕4號)資助


Flood Risk Assessment in Main Urban Area of Chengdu Based on FloodArea Model
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    本文以成都主城區為例,運用氣象數據、地理信息數據、社會經濟統計數據及內澇災情資料,通過多種常用分布函數的對比,選出重現期降水估算的最優函數,采用Pilgrim & Cordery法推求研究區的小時雨型,然后結合改進的基于FloodArea內澇模型,開展了24 h歷時20、30、50、100 a一遇降水情景內澇模擬,并利用修訂的內澇公路風險等級標準和財產損失曲線,探討100 a一遇降水情景下內澇交通風險等級和居民室內財產損失風險。結果表明:①GEV(Generalized Extreme Value Distribution)分布函數是成都主城區重現期降水估算的最優函數;主城區24 h歷時小時雨型呈雙峰型, 且峰值出現在降水過程前部。②基于FloodArea模型,通過對輸入數據或參數的改進,能夠較好模擬城市內澇空間分布;各降水情景模擬結果顯示高新南區、高新西區、青羊區內澇淹沒范圍占比相較其他地區偏高。③24 h歷時100 a一遇降水情景內澇可造成成都主城區86.1%公路長度占比出行困難,其中一級風險公路長度占比為105%,二、三級風險公路長度占比分別為27.5%、28.4%,成華區內澇公路風險最高。④24 h歷時100 a一遇降水情景內澇可造成居民室內財產潛在損失約占主城區GDP(Gross Domestic Product)的0.8%,其中武侯區財產損失風險最大,潛在損失占其GDP的1.6%。

    Abstract:

    In recent years, the problem of urban waterlogging is becoming increasingly serious, and urban waterlogging risk assessment is becoming one of the hotspots and challenges in urban waterlogging disaster research. This article takes the main urban area of Chengdu as an example. Meteorological data, geographic information data, socioeconomic statistical data, and waterlogging disaster information are used. The optimal function for estimating precipitation during the return period is selected by comparing multiple commonly used distribution functions. The hourly rainfall pattern in the study area is calculated with the Pilgrim & Cordery method. Then, an improved FloodArea waterlogging model is developed to simulate waterlogging scenarios with a 24hour rainfall period of 20, 30, 50, and 100 years. Based on the revised risk level standards for waterlogging highways and the revised loss curves for property, the levels of waterlogging traffic risk and the risk of indoor property loss for residents are discussed under the 100year return period precipitation scenario. The results show that: (1) The GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) distribution function is the optimal function for estimating precipitation at the return period in the main urban area of Chengdu. The 24hour hourly rainfall pattern in the main urban area of Chengdu presents a bimodal pattern, and the peak appears at the front of the precipitation process. (2) Based on the FloodArea model, the spatial distribution of urban waterlogging can be well simulated by improving the input data or parameters. The simulation results of various precipitation scenarios show that the proportion of waterlogging inundation areas in Gaoxin South Zone, Gaoxin West Zone, and Qingyang District is higher than in other areas. (3) The 24hour 100year rainfall scenario of waterlogging can cause 86.1% of the road length in the main urban area of Chengdu to be difficult to travel. Among them, the length of first level risk roads accounts for 10.5%, and the length of second and third level risk roads accounts for 27.5% and 28.4% respectively, with the highest risk of waterlogging roads in Chenghua District. (4) The potential loss of indoor property caused by waterlogging during a 24hour 100year rainfall scenario accounts for approximately 0.8% of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the main urban area. Wuhou District has the highest risk of property loss, with potential losses accounting for 1.6% of its GDP. The evaluation results can provide support for the prevention and reduction of waterlogging disasters in Chengdu, and the established methods can provide technical reference for urban waterlogging risk assessment.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

鄧國衛,孫俊,徐沅鑫,徐金霞,彭駿.基于FloodArea模型的成都主城區內澇風險評估[J].氣象科技,2024,52(2):265~276

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2023-07-10
  • 定稿日期:2023-12-01
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2024-04-29
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>